fantasy advice/help

[ASUHATER!]

So I have Aaron Rodgers but also Seattle's defense. They play Thursday. Do I play my other qb?

[azcat49]

Take the two blondes. Oh not that kind of fantasy, sorry

[CalStateTempe]

Frankly I don't follow the NFL much, but an entering a league for the first time in years.

What should I be reading up on prior to my draft tomorrow? nfl.com? yahoo.sports.com?

Also what is the prevailing strategy these days. If I recall, the stack with big name RB's and then with serviceable QB's has fallen out of favor right?

[Reydituto]

Frankly I don't follow the NFL much, but an entering a league for the first time in years.

What should I be reading up on prior to my draft tomorrow? nfl.com? yahoo.sports.com?

Also what is the prevailing strategy these days. If I recall, the stack with big name RB's and then with serviceable QB's has fallen out of favor right?

Really depends on how big your league is, where your first pick is, and what how many of each position you have to start.

For example, my big $$ league is 14 teams, starting 1 QB, 2 RB, 3 WR/TE, 1 DST, 1 PK and 7 bench players. You still need a stud RB to win that league, despite the recent trend of the top QBs and WRs going much earlier than they used to - Manning, Rodgers, Brees, Calvin Johnson, DeMaryius Thomas, Dez Bryant, Brandon Marshall, Jimmy Graham, A.J. Green, Julio Jones, Jordy Nelson and Alshon Jeffery all went in the first 2 rounds in that draft - so because I had the #6 overall pick I went RB-RB getting Eddie Lacy and Doug Martin with my first 2 picks.

IMO, you have to go with a RB in your first two picks, and use your other on best available QB or WR. There are so many fewer reliable RBs from a fantasy perspective, and so many more RBBC situations, that despite the lack of great RBs, you will get burned waiting to take them later. You can still get value at QB in the later rounds if you don't get one of the Top 3, but if you miss out on one of the Top 10-12 WRs, you're unlikely to find anything better than WR2 value in the later rounds. I took Randall Cobb in the 3rd, Pierre Garcon in the 4th, and pipped Nick Foles in the 5th as he was the 7th QB taken and wouldn't be around when I picked in the 6th.

I usually create my own cheat sheet by culling data and looking at several sets of rankings, especially from sources other than ESPN and Yahoo, which are basically decent, but something that almost everyone else uses, and most of the sharks in your league will know that. Check out sites like RTSports, Football Guys, Football Outsiders, RotoWorld, RotoWire, and any other sites that specialize in fantasy football. Find a cheat sheet that looks right to you but is different enough from the MSM sites that will maybe give you an edge in the later rounds over those using rankings from the usual suspects. Also, don't forget the bye weeks for each player, make sure whatever sheet you use shows that so you don't draft 2 QBs with the same bye and have to draft a 3rd in late rounds.

Good luck!

[Reydituto]

So I have Aaron Rodgers but also Seattle's defense. They play Thursday. Do I play my other qb?

No. Always play your studs. If anything, play another defense, but it's possible for Seattle to score D & ST TDs, grab a few sacks and force TOs from other Packers than Rodgers, while Rodgers still has a good game.

[CalStateTempe]

Thanks Rey!

[CalStateTempe]

Ok...I have overall #1, in a 10 team league.

Jamall Charles or Adrian Peterson?

also, difference between standard and PPR scoring?

Draft is in 20 minutes...

[CalStateTempe]

What round should I start thinking Defense?

[Reydituto]

What round should I start thinking Defense?

Don't know if this is in time to help you, but unless you can get Seattle or Carolina in Rounds 9-10, wait until the next to last round to take a DST and the last round for a PK. Also, avoid Arizona and SF in general, they will go higher than they should based on last year's reputation and not based on this year's reality of personnel losses. This gives you an earlier crack at that late-round flyer/prospect with upside at RB or WR, as a few late round picks really take off due to injury to guys in front of them, or sheer talent finally breaking through.

[Reydituto]

Ok...I have overall #1, in a 10 team league.

Jamall Charles or Adrian Peterson?

also, difference between standard and PPR scoring?

Draft is in 20 minutes...

Can't go wrong with either really. Charles might give you more PPR, but AP is still the best.

My league's not PPR, but in PPR leagues I would go business as usual (talent + lots of touches = lots of points) in the early rounds (1-4), then target slot WRs, 3rd-down RBs and TEs who catch a higher number of passes in the middle and later rounds. Guys like Reggie Bush, Andre Ellington, Pierre Thomas, Darren Sproles, Joique Bell, Randall Cobb, Victor Cruz, Wes Welker (if he plays), Julian Edelman, Danny Amendola, Riley Cooper, Jeremy Maclin, Golden Tate, T.Y. Hilton, Markus Wheaton, Doug Baldwin, Brian Hartline, Greg Olsen, Zach Ertz, Dennis Pitta and Charles Clay should/would go a couple rounds higher in a PPR league than in a standard league.



Let us know how you did!

[CalStateTempe]

Thanks Rey, really helpful with resources and tips. I think I have a decent team, but lets see how the season shakes out.

Here's my team, feel free to comment/critique. Interested to hear what you pros think...

Matthew Stafford Det - QB
Jordy Nelson GB - WR
Antonio Brown Pit - WR
Marques Colston NO - WR
Jamaal Charles KC - RB
Frank Gore SF - RB
Jordan Cameron Cle - TE
Rashad Jennings NYG - RB
Zach Ertz Phi - TE
Andy Dalton Cin - QB
Reggie Wayne Ind - WR
Fred Jackson Buf - RB

Dan Bailey Dal - K
Cody Parkey Phi - K

Carolina Car - DEF
Baltimore Bal - DEF

Vontaze Burfict Cin - LB
Patrick Willis SF - LB

[CalStateTempe]

I went with Charles over Peterson...I like what Reid is running in KC

[Reydituto]

Thanks Rey, really helpful with resources and tips. I think I have a decent team, but lets see how the season shakes out.

Here's my team, feel free to comment/critique. Interested to hear what you pros think...

Matthew Stafford Det - QB
Jordy Nelson GB - WR
Antonio Brown Pit - WR
Marques Colston NO - WR
Jamaal Charles KC - RB
Frank Gore SF - RB
Jordan Cameron Cle - TE
Rashad Jennings NYG - RB
Zach Ertz Phi - TE
Andy Dalton Cin - QB
Reggie Wayne Ind - WR
Fred Jackson Buf - RB

Dan Bailey Dal - K
Cody Parkey Phi - K

Carolina Car - DEF
Baltimore Bal - DEF

Vontaze Burfict Cin - LB
Patrick Willis SF - LB

First reaction is you had to draft IDP ... such a silly concept IMO, never liked it, but those guys will tackle a lot and force fumbles.

Likes: Charles, Stafford (Consensus #4 QB available), Nelson, Brown (like Nelson tons of PPR, yards and TDs), Dalton as your QB2 (QB1 value week-to-week, just slightly less upside than top QBs, should be good bye-week fill in), your TEs (Cameron is a beast as long as he stays healthy, Ertz will be Foles' safety valve), DST (nice snag on Carolina), and PKs (both will score a lot of points). And IDPs, I guess.
Dislikes: Colston (he's really the 3rd receiving target after Graham and Pierre Thomas, and may lose import to Cooks) and Jennings (think he's overrated and will lose starting job to Andre Williams at some point this season). Both will produce at times and disappoint at others, and may go down in their team's pecking order.
Iffy/Meh/Could Work Out for Value or Disappoint: Gore (workhorse, but aging, and Carlos Hyde might take some carries from him), Jackson (Gore-light, only doesn't stat like Gore does, but like Dracula, he's hard to kill off), and Wayne (aging vet, is this the year he falls off a cliff? Luck still likes him though, and as your WR3-4, could do worse).

I think your biggest weakness is RB2, esp since Gore and Jackson won't put up huge PPR. If I'm wrong on Jennings (or if Gore remains a workhorse), then you'll be fine as Jennings is an all-around back, I just don't think he's "all that." Overall, good draft CST. Don't be shy on your league's waiver wire early on, look to upgrade the back end of your WR and RB if need be.

[CalStateTempe]

Drafting 1st in a 10+ team draft is deceiving, I would think the sweet spot would be in the 4-6 spots.

By the time my second pick had come along, the pickings for top backs were slim and I felt it would be better to hedge my bets and get stud wide outs with high productivity, rather than that second tier of back that can be hit and miss week to week. After picks two to three I decided to go platoon style for my rb2 and wr3 and just get serviceable for spot duty based on matchups and bye weeks with my later round picks I favor of rounding out the rest of my roster with good fantasy players.

Really pleased with my d didn't think carolina would be left but as predicated all the jokers when with arizona sf Denver and KC leaving them on the table. Happy to represent with my current home. Really didn't want to take gore, but he's me reliable so hopefully he'll hold up for one more year. Was the best of the rest.

Foles went in the first round, which was shocking but that's what you get playing with UofA alums. Also all the best cardinals where gone when I wanted to take them and i wasn't going to waste a pick on Carson Palmer, he'll gve me enough headaches without being on my fantasy team I am sure.

Lesson is, do your homework, becuase it's clear when other owners don't and pick on marketable names, last years hot team, or espn buzz.

Re waivers and breakout stars, any ideas where to start prospecting? More of the same sites above right? And by what week do breakout stars start to reveal themselves?

Btw really upset Kadeem is 4th on the depth chart for the bears. I hope he's not condemned to NFL roster purgatory. Ie good enough to be on a team, but rarely play.

[Reydituto]

Drafting 1st in a 10+ team draft is deceiving, I would think the sweet spot would be in the 4-6 spots.

By the time my second pick had come along, the pickings for top backs were slim and I felt it would be better to hedge my bets and get stud wide outs with high productivity, rather than that second tier of back that can be hit and miss week to week. After picks two to three I decided to go platoon style for my rb2 and wr3 and just get serviceable for spot duty based on matchups and bye weeks with my later round picks I favor of rounding out the rest of my roster with good fantasy players.

Really pleased with my d didn't think carolina would be left but as predicated all the jokers when with arizona sf Denver and KC leaving them on the table. Happy to represent with my current home. Really didn't want to take gore, but he's me reliable so hopefully he'll hold up for one more year. Was the best of the rest.

Foles went in the first round, which was shocking but that's what you get playing with UofA alums. Also all the best cardinals where gone when I wanted to take them and i wasn't going to waste a pick on Carson Palmer, he'll gve me enough headaches without being on my fantasy team I am sure.

Lesson is, do your homework, becuase it's clear when other owners don't and pick on marketable names, last years hot team, or espn buzz.

Re waivers and breakout stars, any ideas where to start prospecting? More of the same sites above right? And by what week do breakout stars start to reveal themselves?

Btw really upset Kadeem is 4th on the depth chart for the bears. I hope he's not condemned to NFL roster purgatory. Ie good enough to be on a team, but rarely play.

Sweet spot differs each year, depending on how many true home runs there are at the top of the draft. This year, I would think #3 (take whoever is left among AP, Charles or McCoy) or #4 (your pick of Forte, Lacy, Lynch, Megatron or Manning). I would agree that it's a long wait between picks if you're #1 or #10/11, which is why in my 14-teamer, I like 3-5 or 10-12. 7 & 8 is the road to mediocrity.

My guess is that you made the right choice by going away from RB with your 2nd/3rd picks, you got two studs at WR and ended up with another at QB. Gore's been good for me in the past, but I avoided him this year because of the mileage. He's good as long as he's upright. Foles going in the first was silly - there are 7 UA alums in my 14-team league, and he lasted until my pick in the 5th, #62 overall - but knowing there are a bunch of UA and Cardinals homers (a few in mine as well) in your league is always a good thing.

I took Palmer as my QB2, but in the 10th round, and was the 19th QB taken. I think he'll be solid yet unspectacular.

Usually first 5 weeks is the high time for the waiver wire. By Week 8-10, it's slim pickings unless someone goes down for the season. Like poker, aggression on the waiver wire is usually rewarded. Pay attention to injuries and poor performances in RBBCs and WR depth, as well as studying the back end of the other league member's rosters for potential sneaky trades or silly waiver drops. You likely have some ideas or opinions on who could break out (besides KaDeem of course, give him time he'll be #2 once he demonstrates he can pick up blitzes) or who is poised for a bigger role once the season gets underway.

Yes, keep monitoring sites like Football Guys, Football Outsiders, RotoWorld, Rotowire and KFFL, and pick a news feed or 2 from among those that you like and seems to ring true with you. They usually have microanalysis on every possible development, breakout and transgression, so you have to do a bit of filtering/sorting out wheat from the chaff, but after a few weeks you'll be able to zero in on what helps you the most.