Conference Realignment

[CardiacCats97]

So PAC-12 value is about late night tv. PAC-12 has leverage and can get a good deal because this is such an amazing thing for networks. Yet, BIg-12 couldn’t get value out of it?

The B1G can just come over the top, add UW, Oregon, Furd, and Cal/Utah/Colorado (whoever) and add a late night window game, which ESPN would pay for. It's literally expected at this point. We should stay and wait for that to happen as opposed to moving first though according to geniuses of this message board.

Seems the most logical choice is to be one of the first out the door as opposed to being the poor jerk who has to turn out the lights on his way to the Mountain West.

[AzCatFan2]

So PAC-12 value is about late night tv. PAC-12 has leverage and can get a good deal because this is such an amazing thing for networks. Yet, BIg-12 couldn’t get value out of it?

The B1G can just come over the top, add UW, Oregon, Furd, and Cal/Utah/Colorado (whoever) and add a late night window game, which ESPN would pay for. It's literally expected at this point. We should stay and wait for that to happen as opposed to moving first though according to geniuses of this message board.

This is one possible outcome. It happens, the BIG 12 will welcome us. But it hasn't happened yet. And the PAC is still in discussions to see if can survive another contract. We preemptively go BIG 12, we force the other PAC teams to go B1G, and we have no other possible outcome. Why should we self relegate down to the BIG 12 before we have to?

[ChooChooCat]

So PAC-12 value is about late night tv. PAC-12 has leverage and can get a good deal because this is such an amazing thing for networks. Yet, BIg-12 couldn’t get value out of it?

The B1G can just come over the top, add UW, Oregon, Furd, and Cal/Utah/Colorado (whoever) and add a late night window game, which ESPN would pay for. It's literally expected at this point. We should stay and wait for that to happen as opposed to moving first though according to geniuses of this message board.

This is one possible outcome. It happens, the BIG 12 will welcome us. But it hasn't happened yet. And the PAC is still in discussions to see if can survive another contract. We preemptively go BIG 12, we force the other PAC teams to go B1G, and we have no other possible outcome. Why should we self relegate down to the BIG 12 before we have to?

Because going to the Big 12 is going to inevitably happen whether you like it or not. Stop replying to me, I'm not interested talking on this topic with those who think like Pac-12 university presidents.

[azcat49]

His two cornerstones is that the conference survives and/or we get a B1G/SEC invite.

I just don’t see any of that happening long term. The conference will implode when the NW/Bay Area schools end up in the B1G as travel partners to the LA schools and the SEC doesn’t seem interested in the western time zone because now would be the time to strike.

The minute those NW schools won’t sign a GOR or want concessions on leaving we should be sending out our request to join the big 12

[AzCatFan2]

We lose nothing by waiting. Leave now for the BIG 12, or wait to see if something better comes along. And if not, end up in the BIG 12. The BIG 12 is Plan B. No reason to enact it until all Plan A options are off the table.

And no guarantee the B1G expands now, or ESPN pays for the late night B1G games. The money may not work. The late night slot is valuable, but not $75 to $80 million a year valuable, which is what other B1G additions will cost. ESPN may be thinking if the B1G takes Oregon, UW, Stanford, and CAL, let Fox pay them $75 million a year. Meanwhile, the 4 corner PAC schools plus SDSU go BIG 12, and ESPN has plenty of late night, BIG 12 content, at say $50 million a school.

In this scenario, FOX has the better late night games, but are overpaying for them. Meanwhile, late games featuring BYU, SDSU, and the 4 corner PAC schools isn't horrible.

It's why the B1G hasn't expanded again yet. The money doesn't make sense. And why the PAC will likely survive another contract. If the above scenario is what happens, and is the most likely, then fine. But zero reason not to have patience and see if we can work out something better for us first. If that doesn't happen, the BIG 12 will still be there.

[UAdevil]

[PHXCATS]

I am not saying stay or go here. I am just working the math

espn would need to offer more than $150 Million per year extra to make it worth it to take on two more schools and $300 Million per year extra to take on four more schools to make it worth it to the existing 16 schools financially. Otherwise it make no sense for Purdue or Indiana or Minnesota to take on additional expenses and lose payouts per year.

espn is not very smart but that does not seem to make a ton of sense to only get one game in football and limited basketball inventory. Maybe if they get two late window kicks per week.

If that happens every home game for USC UCLA Oregon Washington etc play will be night games except when Michigan and Ohio State come to town.

This is assuming that at least Oregon and Washington want full or close to full payouts from the B1G

[ChooChooCat]

I am not saying stay or go here. I am just working the math

espn would need to offer more than $150 Million per year extra to make it worth it to take on two more schools and $300 Million per year extra to take on four more schools to make it worth it to the existing 16 schools financially. Otherwise it make no sense for Purdue or Indiana or Minnesota to take on additional expenses and lose payouts per year.

espn is not very smart but that does not seem to make a ton of sense to only get one game in football and limited basketball inventory. Maybe if they get two late window kicks per week.

If that happens every home game for USC UCLA Oregon Washington etc play will be night games except when Michigan and Ohio State come to town.

This is assuming that at least Oregon and Washington want full or close to full payouts from the B1G

It's not just ESPN's money. The contract clause increases the payout from the other networks as well. ESPN would just be bidding on the late window. So you include the extra money from the expansion clause in the current contract and then add whatever money you get from the late window and there you go. It makes monetary sense. Also FOX could bid on that late window as well if it wanted. They'd need more west coast schools to get said window though.

[PHXCATS]

I am not saying stay or go here. I am just working the math

espn would need to offer more than $150 Million per year extra to make it worth it to take on two more schools and $300 Million per year extra to take on four more schools to make it worth it to the existing 16 schools financially. Otherwise it make no sense for Purdue or Indiana or Minnesota to take on additional expenses and lose payouts per year.

espn is not very smart but that does not seem to make a ton of sense to only get one game in football and limited basketball inventory. Maybe if they get two late window kicks per week.

If that happens every home game for USC UCLA Oregon Washington etc play will be night games except when Michigan and Ohio State come to town.

This is assuming that at least Oregon and Washington want full or close to full payouts from the B1G

It's not just ESPN's money. The contract clause increases the payout from the other networks as well. ESPN would just be bidding on the late window. So you include the extra money from the expansion clause in the current contract and then add whatever money you get from the late window and there you go. It makes monetary sense. Also FOX could bid on that late window as well if it wanted. They'd need more west coast schools to get said window though.

I am not going to argue or fight you on it. You clearly know your stuff from other threads. I just have a hard time seeing all networks through in that much more on top of what they already are doing but we will see

[ChooChooCat]

Well think of it this way, that would give NBC/CBS/FOX access to Oregon, UW, Stanford, insert 4th west school here for the non-late night windows too and whoever gets the late night window would have access to the current 16 B1G teams as well and not just the west coast variety. That's why this is on the table.

[AzCatFan2]

Adding 4 more B1G schools still works out to $300 million, or $75 million a year for schools not worth that much, except Notre Dame. The only real value for the networks adding more B1G teams is the late night window. It's valuable, but probably not worth the all in cost of adding teams, especially if ND says no and CAL is the 4th team added.

The B1G contract with the escalator clause is signed. There is nothing stopping the B1G from adding more teams and having anyone, ESPN included, bidding on a late window game today. The longer it goes without happening, the less likely it is to happen.

[PHXCATS]

Well think of it this way, that would give NBC/CBS/FOX access to Oregon, UW, Stanford, insert 4th west school here for the non-late night windows too and whoever gets the late night window would have access to the current 16 B1G teams as well and not just the west coast variety. That's why this is on the table.

I totally get it and I guess who cares at this point. You are throwing out 1.2Billion a year at this, why not just got to 1.6B.

[MrBug708]

Wilner was saying on twitter that the UC Regents may block UCLA's move, so the BIG 10 may end up taking Stanford instead.

Pundit here says the BIG 12 may not want the PAC leftovers.

Wilner is in job preservation mode. The only way to "block" the UCLA move is to breach the contract UCLA made to join the B10. Not sure the regents want to tangle with that mess when UCLA just dealt with a breach of contract with UnderArmour.

[GlobalCat]

Wilner was saying on twitter that the UC Regents may block UCLA's move, so the BIG 10 may end up taking Stanford instead.

Pundit here says the BIG 12 may not want the PAC leftovers.

Wilner is in job preservation mode. The only way to "block" the UCLA move is to breach the contract UCLA made to join the B10. Not sure the regents want to tangle with that mess when UCLA just dealt with a breach of contract with UnderArmour.

Wouldn't the Regents make the argument that UCLA didn't have the authority on its own to have signed the contract? I know UCLA's AD and President will make the argument they had delegated authority, but the Regents would counter it was on a permission basis - and the secrecy in signing it unilaterally as evidence they knew the decision would likely be countermanded.

And on UnderArmor, UCLA came out just fine in that settlement + not being affiliated with UnderArmor.

[PHXCATS]

Wilner was saying on twitter that the UC Regents may block UCLA's move, so the BIG 10 may end up taking Stanford instead.

Pundit here says the BIG 12 may not want the PAC leftovers.

Wilner is in job preservation mode. The only way to "block" the UCLA move is to breach the contract UCLA made to join the B10. Not sure the regents want to tangle with that mess when UCLA just dealt with a breach of contract with UnderArmour.

Wouldn't the Regents make the argument that UCLA didn't have the authority on its own to have signed the contract? I know UCLA's AD and President will make the argument they had delegated authority, but the Regents would counter it was on a permission basis - and the secrecy in signing it unilaterally as evidence they knew the decision would likely be countermanded.

And on UnderArmor, UCLA came out just fine in that settlement + not being affiliated with UnderArmor.

Seems to me that the Regents can block the move and would win any lawsuits that came as a result, but the cost would be really high

[MrBug708]

Wilner was saying on twitter that the UC Regents may block UCLA's move, so the BIG 10 may end up taking Stanford instead.

Pundit here says the BIG 12 may not want the PAC leftovers.

Wilner is in job preservation mode. The only way to "block" the UCLA move is to breach the contract UCLA made to join the B10. Not sure the regents want to tangle with that mess when UCLA just dealt with a breach of contract with UnderArmour.

Wouldn't the Regents make the argument that UCLA didn't have the authority on its own to have signed the contract? I know UCLA's AD and President will make the argument they had delegated authority, but the Regents would counter it was on a permission basis - and the secrecy in signing it unilaterally as evidence they knew the decision would likely be countermanded.

And on UnderArmor, UCLA came out just fine in that settlement + not being affiliated with UnderArmor.

They did have authority to make the decision. Much of the public session with the UC lawyer was spent figuring out how to undo the permission, but anything they did would be going forward. Regent Lopez came out of the closed session confident he could still block the move, but the leaky UC Regents office has yet to leak how this could happen. The regent could still break the agreement of UCLA going to the B10, but that's probably not a lawsuit they want to entertain, they certainly don't want to waste the money trying to "bring down" one of their own UC campuses. This will mostly blow over. I suspect UCLA and Cal will be playing non-conference games to make up for "loss revenue".

[UAEebs86]

[dmjcat]

He appears to be referencing an AZ Board of Regents meeting this thursday...........the agenda is pasted below and does not appear to
involve anything regarding realignment

https://public.azregents.edu/Public%20N ... Notice.pdf

[Merkin]

Who are meeting?

And no chance UA can leave on their own without ABOR approval. UA is not UCLA.

[UAEebs86]

[AzCatFan2]

While I think this is the most likely scenario, one question is, why hasn't it happened yet? And I think the answer is money. The B1G would allow for this expansion to happen today, but the price tag may be a bit too high. In order for Oregon, UW, Cal, and Stanford to get equal pay from the B1G, it would take $300 million. And none of these schools are worth $75 million a year.

ESPN is thinking, for the same price, it could get all 10 remaining PAC schools, and potentially squeeze a little more for a PAC/ACC alliance, and get a lot more content for a very similar price. At least through 2029. Fox, NBC, and ABC could pony up the money to expand the B1G as well, but they too see the 4 additional PAC schools not worth it right now. Phil Knight might want Oregon in the B1G, but he can't force the networks to overpay.

[AzCatFan2]

Report out today The Ohio State University is currently against any additional B1G expansion at the moment. https://saturdayoutwest.com/pac-12/repo ... expansion/

Only Notre Dame adds money to the B1G right now. All other schools would likely not add to the bottom line. Looks like TOSU wants to keep it that way, at least until the next round of B1G contract negotiations.

[azcat49]

Sounds like there is a game plan and the next step is to remove the NCAA and have a CFP group oversee the P5 schools that would be included in such a system.

I guess they need to decide if there is going to be college football or an NFL light type setup. I keep hearing they also want to mess with the basketball tournament and eliminate the cindarella’s. Tough time for fans

[RichardCranium]

Sounds like there is a game plan and the next step is to remove the NCAA and have a CFP group oversee the P5 schools that would be included in such a system.

I guess they need to decide if there is going to be college football or an NFL light type setup. I keep hearing they also want to mess with the basketball tournament and eliminate the cindarella’s. Tough time for fans

I think that's pretty much what I said about a million posts ago.

[azgreg]

Sounds like there is a game plan and the next step is to remove the NCAA and have a CFP group oversee the P5 schools that would be included in such a system.

I guess they need to decide if there is going to be college football or an NFL light type setup. I keep hearing they also want to mess with the basketball tournament and eliminate the cindarella’s. Tough time for fans

I think that's pretty much what I said about a million posts ago.

I've told you a billion times not to exagerate.

[RichardCranium]

Seems like it anyway.

[ChooChooCat]

Report out today The Ohio State University is currently against any additional B1G expansion at the moment. https://saturdayoutwest.com/pac-12/repo ... expansion/

Only Notre Dame adds money to the B1G right now. All other schools would likely not add to the bottom line. Looks like TOSU wants to keep it that way, at least until the next round of B1G contract negotiations.

That report is from Jon Wilner. Needless to say he's not known for his contacts outside of the Pacific time zone.

[ChooChooCat]

Any leverage the Pac-12 had over the Big-12 is officially dead.

[PHXCATS]

Any leverage the Pac-12 had over the Big-12 is officially dead.

100%

Do you see anything happening in the next few weeks?

My guess would be this would all be very quite until the end of the season. Does not benefit anyone to announce they are changing conferences in season

[ChooChooCat]

Any leverage the Pac-12 had over the Big-12 is officially dead.

100%

Do you see anything happening in the next few weeks?

My guess would be this would all be very quite until the end of the season. Does not benefit anyone to announce they are changing conferences in season

I couldn't begin to tell you when any action would go down, but if I had to guess I'd assume it wouldn't come until after football season had concluded as well.

[CardiacCats97]

I can’t imagine anything would happen until at least the BigXII gets their first offers and they can see if adding teams would be a net benefit or not.

[ChooChooCat]

I can’t imagine anything would happen until at least the BigXII gets their first offers and they can see if adding teams would be a net benefit or not.

They're going to be adding teams if they can 100%.

[AzCatFan2]

I'm sure the BIG 12 will ask how much value adding the Four Corner PAC schools will bring to the TV discussions. And it might be enough to lure us? The one thing the PAC has over the BIG 12 is the ability to provide content for the 4th, late night window. Add the 4C PAC schools to BYU, and that gives the BIG 12 5 teams in the Mountain time zone. Is that enough to entice ESPN and FOX to pay BIG 12 schools tens of millions more per school than the PAC?

My gut says no. The PAC still has the more valuable properties in Oregon, UW, and Stanford, and unless at least two of these agree to come to the BIG 12, I don't see the BIG 12 TV contract being significantly more in value than a PAC12 minus 2 contract. Just my opinion. There's also the continued talks of an ACC-PAC alliance, which could skew the scales back in the PAC's favor. ESPN won't care about a BIG12/ACC alliance, because all but one of the schools in these conferences are in the Atlantic or Central time zone. No late night content. My guess is the value of a PAC TV deal with an ACC alliance will come close to equaling anything the BIG 12 can offer.

[PHXCATS]

My guess is if the Big 12 expands further it will be Utah, Colorado, asu, Arizona, San Diego St and one more

That would be enough for espn or fox to have at least two maybe three late window games each week in conference play

[SabinoDrifter]

[AzCatFan2]

My guess is if the Big 12 expands further it will be Utah, Colorado, asu, Arizona, San Diego St and one more

That would be enough for espn or fox to have at least two maybe three late window games each week in conference play

My guesses for the 18th team would be either Boise St. or UNLV. Boise St. has brand value, but is located in a tiny market. UNLV is located in a small to medium market, but it's growing, and growing fast. And Vegas fits geographically better than Boise.

[CardiacCats97]

[PHXCATS]

Arizona has had talks with the Big Ten

[ChooChooCat]

My guess is if the Big 12 expands further it will be Utah, Colorado, asu, Arizona, San Diego St and one more

That would be enough for espn or fox to have at least two maybe three late window games each week in conference play

They’d add the 4 corners and stop until the ACC is raided by the B1G and SEC. Big 12 can then pluck whatever leftovers that they’d want (like Louisville).

[PHXCATS]

If so that leaves one late window most weeks

[azgreg]

[UAEebs86]

[AzCatFan2]

The playoff expansion has potentially changed the calculus for schools like Oregon and Washington. If the money for staying in the PAC is enough, then the lure of a guaranteed PAC playoff spot might be enough for these schools, versus a few more dollars in the B1G, but having to compete with the Ohio State, Michigan, and USC just to reach the playoffs. But my guess is, the PAC will have to find another $15 million per school up from the $30 million ESPN offered on the TV deal. Amazon may want in, and my pay the $15 mil, but it would likely include a few Tier 1 games in the package.

I don't see any PAC teams preemptively leaving for the BIG 12. But if the 4 PAC schools go B1G, the 4-corner PAC schools are almost guaranteed a soft landing in the BIG 12. Might add SDSU too, and SDSU, BYU, plus the 4 corner PAC schools is a decent west coast pod for the BIG 12.

[AzCatFan2]

Cazano article saying PAC 12 schools aren't buying what the BIG 12 is selling. But Yormack is chumming the waters to see if the 4 corner schools might bite.

https://www.johncanzano.com/p/canzano-p ... g-what-big

[azcat49]

With the expansion of the playoffs I hope we stay. Add SDSU(all sports) and Gonzaga in basketball and we have a pretty good conference

[azgreg]

Zero chance the PAC adds Gonzaga.

[azcat49]

In basketball and baseball only? Why, because they are a Jesuit school? Non tier 1 and AAU? They have to add someone and SDSU protects that so cal market and they need a basketball power to replace UCLA

[azgreg]

In basketball and baseball only? Why, because they are a Jesuit school? Non tier 1 and AAU? They have to add someone and SDSU protects that so cal market and they need a basketball power to replace UCLA

IIRC the PAC has only allowed schools in for single sports if it's a lower tiered sport and that sport isn't offered in their conference.

[azcat49]

Well the PAC if it’s going to survive, needs to be creative

[AZCatGirl]

The Pac is too stubborn to be creative. Hence why we need to get out before it falls.