azcat49 wrote:Saint Marys is undefeated when they out rebound their opponent. I just don't see that happening tomorrow
I.e. they've beaten Dayton, Nevada and Stanford when they've won the rebounding battle. I'm not sure that the rest of the schedule really means much of anything.
They do present a challenge given the effectiveness of Landale, how well they are coached and how well they shoot the ball. I think it'll likely be a pretty good game. We'll clearly be the most athletic team they've faced all season. I'm curious to see how St. Mary's deals with that.
Last edited by RaisingArizona on Sat Mar 18, 2017 2:05 am, edited 1 time in total.
I hear the Cats are now favored by 4. I have told anyone who will listen I'll take the Cats and give them the 4 pts. I've even offered 5 pts. if they will bet heavy. I have a few takers, so dinner tomorrow - and more - is on them. Book it.
“I'm not surprised,” Miller said. “We knew when we faced them ... that they're a team that's going to be in this tournament.”
Of course, the question was asked: Are those past scrimmages going to affect how either team prepares for this Round of 32 matchup?
Saint Mary’s guard Joe Rahon said SMC’s familiarity with Arizona will help “a bit” and Miller said Arizona has a feel for Saint Mary’s discipline on defense and how it moves the ball on offense and utilizes screens.
Bennett doesn’t think the scrimmages will amount to much, though.
“I don't think the scrimmages are a factor,” he said. “Because we didn't scrimmage them this year. ... If we had, it would be a little bit of a factor for us.”
Gilbertcat wrote:Based on the line now up to -5, don't think alot of people read kenpom lol
Two things important in this post...1: Vegas is not SOLEY about who wins the game the odds are also about how the house wants to manipulate the bets for the HOUSES benefit, in other words Vegas has Duke waaay up as the heavy favorite to win, not because their model says as much but instead because the house doesn't want to take any more bets on Duke so they raise the points in order to discourage the bets, lower bets means more bets on that team...so what this means is more people are placing bets on Az to win...
As far as Kenpom goes...USC which had a rank of 61 just beat SMU which had a rank of 11...as a predictive model there are quite a few holes in it...because it's trying to predict...
Gilbertcat wrote:Based on the line now up to -5, don't think alot of people read kenpom lol
Two things important in this post...1: Vegas is not SOLEY about who wins the game the odds are also about how the house wants to manipulate the bets for the HOUSES benefit, in other words Vegas has Duke waaay up as the heavy favorite to win, not because their model says as much but instead because the house doesn't want to take any more bets on Duke so they raise the points in order to discourage the bets, lower bets means more bets on that team...so what this means is more people are placing bets on Az to win...
As far as Kenpom goes...USC which had a rank of 61 just beat SMU which had a rank of 11...as a predictive model there are quite a few holes in it...because it's trying to predict...
Exactly - betting lines are always set to try to encourage as much betting on both sides. It has nothing to do with who they think will win the game. And the last I heard Kenpom has never suited up for a game.
St. Mary’s will give Arizona all it can handle. It’ll stay in the game with hot shooting inside and out, while not getting crushed on the boards with few problems against the Wildcat aggressiveness. But Arizona will step it up in the last few minutes, going on a run to finally get some breathing room. The Wildcat talent and athleticism will eventually break through.
Fearless Prediction & Line
Arizona 75, St. Mary’s 69
Line: Arizona -5, 0/u: 132
For most of the game, Arizona will dominate St. Mary’s. It is a game of runs, and the Gaels will piece together some scoring bursts of their own, but they’ll also see the well go dry multiple times against the Wildcats. That will cost them. Trier will crack the 20-point mark and will lead Arizona in scoring. Some missed threes in the second half will help the Wildcats shut the door on St. Mary’s title hopes.
Arizona vs. St. Mary’s Score Prediction: Arizona 95, St. Mary’s 81
The key to this game for both teams will be controlling the tempo.
While Arizona prefers an up-tempo game, Saint Mary’s will try to slow the game down to a crawl. The Gaels play at the second slowest tempo, which is why they are ranked No. 198 in points per game, despite boasting a top 10 field goal percentage.
Saint Mary’s Achilles’ heel this season has been the Gonzaga Bulldogs, a team that boast athletic guards, tall forwards, and an aggressive play style. That is why my pick for this game would be the Arizona Wildcats. The Wildcats are relatively similar in play style to the Zags, although they do play at a slower tempo.
The Wildcats’ combination of depth, athleticism, size, and efficiency will give the Gaels problems. This mismatch will allow Arizona to control the tempo and lift them into the Sweet Sixteen.
For most of the game, Arizona will dominate St. Mary’s. It is a game of runs, and the Gaels will piece together some scoring bursts of their own, but they’ll also see the well go dry multiple times against the Wildcats. That will cost them. Trier will crack the 20-point mark and will lead Arizona in scoring. Some missed threes in the second half will help the Wildcats shut the door on St. Mary’s title hopes.
Arizona vs. St. Mary’s Score Prediction: Arizona 95, St. Mary’s 81
Arizona 95, St. Mary’s 81
2 plodding offenses are going to combine for 176 points?
Dude, you (not you Greg) just embarrassed yourself by how little you know about these teams.
Saint Mary’s is a popular upset pick, but I don’t see it. The Gaels had a pretty cushy schedule this season. Gonzaga was the only uber-talented team that Saint Mary’s has played, and they were blown out in all three games. The Wildcats are better than the Gaels in nearly ever facet of the game, and they’re bigger and more athletic. All four of Arizona’s losses came against teams that are seeded 4 or higher in the tournament. The Wildcats have won 9 of their last 10, and I think they keep on rolling in the tournament. I like Arizona to win this one and cover easily on Saturday.
For most of the game, Arizona will dominate St. Mary’s. It is a game of runs, and the Gaels will piece together some scoring bursts of their own, but they’ll also see the well go dry multiple times against the Wildcats. That will cost them. Trier will crack the 20-point mark and will lead Arizona in scoring. Some missed threes in the second half will help the Wildcats shut the door on St. Mary’s title hopes.
Arizona vs. St. Mary’s Score Prediction: Arizona 95, St. Mary’s 81
Arizona 95, St. Mary’s 81
2 plodding offenses are going to combine for 176 points?
Dude, you (not you Greg) just embarrassed yourself by how little you know about these teams.
My guess the score will be in the 60's - 70's. If Arizona gets 77-79 should be a good thing?
Screw jinxes, reverse jinxes, and the like. If we are a final four team we shouldn't be worried about St Mary's. Let's blow them out of the stadium early and not look back.
baconus66 wrote:Screw jinxes, reverse jinxes, and the like. If we are a final four team we shouldn't be worried about St Mary's. Let's blow them out of the stadium early and not look back.
Amen. How about SMC worrying about the fact that they are playing a team with at least 3 or 4 future NBA players and that they have only been to the Sweet Sixteen once since the Eisenhower administration?
We are the people our parents warned us about.
-JB
2022 Survival Pool Co-Champion
For most of the game, Arizona will dominate St. Mary’s. It is a game of runs, and the Gaels will piece together some scoring bursts of their own, but they’ll also see the well go dry multiple times against the Wildcats. That will cost them. Trier will crack the 20-point mark and will lead Arizona in scoring. Some missed threes in the second half will help the Wildcats shut the door on St. Mary’s title hopes.
Arizona vs. St. Mary’s Score Prediction: Arizona 95, St. Mary’s 81
Arizona 95, St. Mary’s 81
2 plodding offenses are going to combine for 176 points?
Dude, you (not you Greg) just embarrassed yourself by how little you know about these teams.
I agree with your overall assessment, but plodding offenses? These offenses aren't plodding, they just play a slower tempo, namely St. Mary's.
We're 270th or something, which isn't exactly the hare to Saint Mary's tortoise. And isn't a slower tempo the definition of plodding?
'A parent is the one person who is supposed to make their kid think they can do anything. Says they're beautiful even when they're ugly. Thinks they're smart even when they go to Arizona State.' -- Jack Donaghy
Puerco wrote:We're 270th or something, which isn't exactly the hare to Saint Mary's tortoise. And isn't a slower tempo the definition of plodding?
I actually like to think of this team's tempo being higher. I think when we play our game we are in the top third of the 351 teams in Division 1. I think the metrics are showing us as a slower team because of all the teams that threw zone at us this year. When damn-near every team you face plays a zone against you, the metrics will show you as a slower team.
We need to speed them up to get them away from their methodical offense and make them take worse shots. This in turn helps us be able to rebound and get out in transition with PJC, Allen, Trier, Rawle and Kobi. Not all at the same time of course.
Puerco wrote:We're 270th or something, which isn't exactly the hare to Saint Mary's tortoise. And isn't a slower tempo the definition of plodding?
Just bought a dictionary and can confirm that that is the very definition of plodding.
In all seriousness I always took plodding to mean ugly or bad, but slow moving and unexciting definitely fit the bill for St. Mary's and when we play against zone it describes us as well.
We got to remember that our pace stats are a bit skewed by our (former?) issues w zones, having a different PJC than we have now, PJCs injury, not having Trier, and extended periods of not having depth.
My concern though, is Miller's teams havent been great historically at speeding teams up. If you want us to play slow, most likely going to succeed
The only times I've heard Miller talk about pace is in slowing down the other team and slow calculated game does not bother me...its a game of numbers not pace...as a general rule. because our emphasis is DEFENSE we typically take what the other team throws at us pace-wise...thats why we beat UCLA twice and Oregon once...they both wanted to play faster and we did...but make no mistake we have played plenty of bogged down pace games and have won all of them...
I still think we'd have killed them. What's needed is familiarity. If they were a conference foe, it wouldn't take so long to figure out which buttons to press.
Longhorned wrote:I still think we'd have killed them. What's needed is familiarity. If they were a conference foe, it wouldn't take so long to figure out which buttons to press.
This was also the first year in forever we haven't scrimmaged against them in the preseason. That probably would've helped a lot too.
Longhorned wrote:I still think we'd have killed them. What's needed is familiarity. If they were a conference foe, it wouldn't take so long to figure out which buttons to press.
This was also the first year in forever we haven't scrimmaged against them in the preseason. That probably would've helped a lot too.
Dunno. Our kids could have used the reps, but St. Mary's was probably the same this year as it has always been. Miller sure knew what they were going to do and they did it very well. We had 4 assists in the win which tells me we didn't play our game on offense at all. We scored enough and defended juuuust enough. Gonzaga, by contrast, was able to run their game from the get-go.
“Conservatism consists of exactly one proposition …There must be in-groups whom the law protects but does not bind, alongside out-groups whom the law binds but does not protect.”
Longhorned wrote:I still think we'd have killed them. What's needed is familiarity. If they were a conference foe, it wouldn't take so long to figure out which buttons to press.
This was also the first year in forever we haven't scrimmaged against them in the preseason. That probably would've helped a lot too.
Dunno. Our kids could have used the reps, but St. Mary's was probably the same this year as it has always been. Miller sure knew what they were going to do and they did it very well. We had 4 assists in the win which tells me we didn't play our game on offense at all. We scored enough and defended juuuust enough. Gonzaga, by contrast, was able to run their game from the get-go.
I think we we'd be on from the get go, too, with that familiarity. The scrimmages aren't like games at all. They're teaching situations. The coaches are letting their players make mistakes and then stopping play to run through what happened.
Longhorned wrote:I still think we'd have killed them. What's needed is familiarity. If they were a conference foe, it wouldn't take so long to figure out which buttons to press.
This was also the first year in forever we haven't scrimmaged against them in the preseason. That probably would've helped a lot too.
Dunno. Our kids could have used the reps, but St. Mary's was probably the same this year as it has always been. Miller sure knew what they were going to do and they did it very well. We had 4 assists in the win which tells me we didn't play our game on offense at all. We scored enough and defended juuuust enough. Gonzaga, by contrast, was able to run their game from the get-go.
I think we we'd be on from the get go, too, with that familiarity. The scrimmages aren't like games at all. They're teaching situations. The coaches are letting their players make mistakes and then stopping play to run through what happened.
Yeah, I pretty much agree, but don't you think since at least, what, five of our guys went through the scrimmages last year, and the coaches were so familiar with their style, we would put together a competent scout team prep for the game? we were off tonight for sure...it wasn't all St. Mary's, but a lot of it was just that their action knocked our dick in the dirt for a while there.
“Conservatism consists of exactly one proposition …There must be in-groups whom the law protects but does not bind, alongside out-groups whom the law binds but does not protect.”
