Official Bracketology Thread

Phylek · Post by **Phylek** » Sun Mar 11, 2018 7:24 am

I really struggle to accept Kansas and Xavier as 1 seeds, but I struggle more with figuring out who to put in their place. Virginia and Villanova are the only true 1 seeds in this tournament. I pretty well agree with your brackets, at least as far as the seeds go. I might move some teams within those seedings, but the seeds look right.

Alieberman · Post by **Alieberman** » Sun Mar 11, 2018 7:31 am

The R stands for “Ready to win this whole Fucking Thing”

Sorry if that wasn’t clear!

And it’s great to see you posting Phylek... hope your family is well

PieceOfMeat · Post by **PieceOfMeat** » Sun Mar 11, 2018 7:34 am

I thought the R stood for "Romar'd".

Frybry02 · Post by **Frybry02** » Sun Mar 11, 2018 7:34 am

Kansas is playing arguably playing the best ball of any any team.

Phylek · Post by **Phylek** » Sun Mar 11, 2018 7:35 am

Alieberman wrote:The R stands for “Ready to win this whole Fucking Thing”

Sorry if that wasn’t clear!

And it’s great to see you posting Phylek... hope your family is well

Brilliant!

Were you just waiting for someone to ask?

Phylek · Post by **Phylek** » Sun Mar 11, 2018 7:43 am

Frybry02 wrote:Kansas is playing arguably playing the best ball of any any team.

Kansas and Arizona are both looking really good, right now. Both are 8-2 over the last 10 and 27-7 overall. Both won their conference regular season and tournament in impressive fashion. And both are peaking at the right time. I'm not arguing that Kansas isn't great. I'm arguing that their body of work for the season doesn't justify a #1 seed. A 7 loss 1 seed? However, I'm also conceding that they are as deserving, maybe more, than anyone else. I think they get the #1.

Frybry02 · Post by **Frybry02** » Sun Mar 11, 2018 8:25 am

Phylek wrote:
Frybry02 wrote:Kansas is playing arguably playing the best ball of any any team.
Kansas and Arizona are both looking really good, right now. Both are 8-2 over the last 10 and 27-7 overall. Both won their conference regular season and tournament in impressive fashion. And both are peaking at the right time. I'm not arguing that Kansas isn't great. I'm arguing that their body of work for the season doesn't justify a #1 seed. A 7 loss 1 seed? However, I'm also conceding that they are as deserving, maybe more, than anyone else. I think they get the #1.

A seven loss 1 seed has to be rare. Just imagine if UNC won yesterday, there was buzz they could be a 9 loss 1 seed! Bonkers.

prh · Post by **prh** » Sun Mar 11, 2018 8:36 am

Frybry02 wrote:
Phylek wrote:
Frybry02 wrote:Kansas is playing arguably playing the best ball of any any team.
Kansas and Arizona are both looking really good, right now. Both are 8-2 over the last 10 and 27-7 overall. Both won their conference regular season and tournament in impressive fashion. And both are peaking at the right time. I'm not arguing that Kansas isn't great. I'm arguing that their body of work for the season doesn't justify a #1 seed. A 7 loss 1 seed? However, I'm also conceding that they are as deserving, maybe more, than anyone else. I think they get the #1.
A seven loss 1 seed has to be rare. Just imagine if UNC won yesterday, there was buzz they could be a 9 loss 1 seed! Bonkers.

Ironically UNC had 7 losses last year and was a 1. These days I just expect Duke/UNC/KU to take a 1 no matter how many losses they have.

Phylek · Post by **Phylek** » Sun Mar 11, 2018 10:02 am

Alieberman wrote: So here is my official final top 20:

1. Virginia
2. Villanova
3. Kansas
4. Xavier

5 Purdue
6. Duke
7. Cincinnati
8. Michigan State

9. Tennessee
10 Michigan
11. North Carolina
12. Arizona

13. Auburn
14. Gonzaga
15. West Virginia
16 Wichita State

17 Kentucky
18. Clemson
19. Texas Tech
20. Ohio State

Arizona 3 seed in the West....

Based on your top 20 and seedings, and based on some in depth statistical analysis I did this morning to evaluate whch teams are hot and which are not...

Our wish list as Arizona fans should be...

1 seed of either Xavier or Kansas
2 seed of Purdue
4 seed of Wichita State or Auburn

These are your top 20 teams from top to bottom based on a combined adjusted O and adjusted D for the last 10 games.

Seed Team
2 Duke
3 Michigan
1 Virginia
1 Villanova
2 Cincinnati
2 Michigan State
4 Gonzaga
5 Kentucky
3 North Carolina
5 Texas Tech
3 Arizona
5 Clemson
3 Tennessee
1 Kansas
5 Ohio State
4 West Virgina
1 Xavier
4 Auburn
4 Wichita State
2 Purdue

Alieberman · Post by **Alieberman** » Sun Mar 11, 2018 10:09 am

Great Phylek... to go along with that-

Lunardi has us as a #4 in the West, but I would cream for that draw. Here are 1-5 in the West bracket according to Lunardi:

1- Xavier
2- Purdue
3-Auburn
4- Arizona
5- Clemson

Yes, yes, yes

Phylek · Post by **Phylek** » Sun Mar 11, 2018 10:11 am

That's a fantastic draw. Hopefully, we are talking about something like that this evening.

SunnyAZ · Post by **SunnyAZ** » Sun Mar 11, 2018 10:28 am

Dickie V. saying how unbelievably we are playing during the Kentucky/Tennessee game.

prh · Post by **prh** » Sun Mar 11, 2018 10:30 am

Is it just me or is it really weird seeing Rick Barnes coaching Tennessee and Bruce Pearl coaching Auburn?

Spaceman Spiff · Post by **Spaceman Spiff** » Sun Mar 11, 2018 10:38 am

Based on previous years, I feel like I've learned not to worry about our draw. Some of the best draws I thought we had wound up a rough road.

Alieberman · Post by **Alieberman** » Sun Mar 11, 2018 10:43 am

If you aren't worrying about our draw, what are you doing with your time?

Seriously.... I need help.... lots of help

What time is the Selection Show?

ASUHATER! · Post by **ASUHATER!** » Sun Mar 11, 2018 10:43 am

Alieberman wrote:If you aren't worrying about our draw, what are you doing with your time?

Seriously.... I need help.... lots of help

What time is the Selection Show?

3 o'clock Arizona/California time

NYCat · Post by **NYCat** » Sun Mar 11, 2018 10:46 am

Here's Bracket Matrix most accurate bracket as of Sunday morning

https://bracketville.wordpress.com/bracketology/" target="_blank

West:
1. Xavier
2. North Carolina
3. Michigan
4. Arizona
5. Kentucky

Bracket matrix 2nd most accurate bracket as of Sunday morning

https://theathletic.com/268903/2018/03/ ... -bursting/" target="_blank

West:

1. Xavier
2. North Carolina
3. Texas Tech
4. Arizona
5. Gonzaga

I think it's accurate at the top. Xavier is the weakest 1 seed and will get shipped out west. UNC is the strongest #2 seed so they'll be paired with Xavier (overall #1 seed gets the weakest #2 seed, last #1 seed gets the strongest #2 seed and so on.

Then the #3 & #4 seeds are up to debate. But I think we end up with Xavier & UNC no matter what.

ByJoveByJingle · Post by **ByJoveByJingle** » Sun Mar 11, 2018 10:46 am

Phylek wrote:What does the 'R' next to Arizona indicate?

Revenge.

ASUHATER! · Post by **ASUHATER!** » Sun Mar 11, 2018 10:47 am

Looking at bracket matrix and elsewhere it seems like we're going to stay a 4. Too bad no one got to watch our game last night

Phylek · Post by **Phylek** » Sun Mar 11, 2018 10:48 am

NYCat wrote:Here's Bracket Matrix most accurate bracket as of Sunday morning

https://bracketville.wordpress.com/bracketology/" target="_blank

West:
1. Xavier
2. North Carolina
3. Michigan
4. Arizona
5. Kentucky

Bracket matrix 2nd most accurate bracket as of Sunday morning

https://theathletic.com/268903/2018/03/ ... -bursting/" target="_blank

West:

1. Xavier
2. North Carolina
3. Texas Tech
4. Arizona
5. Gonzaga

Other than Xavier, I don't like either one of those.

Either way, Xavier is so screwed.

Alieberman · Post by **Alieberman** » Sun Mar 11, 2018 10:50 am

If you look closely at the bracket matrix, you will see Arizona jumped to the 3 line on a lot of brackets this morning

Irish27 · Post by **Irish27** » Sun Mar 11, 2018 10:55 am

Alieberman wrote:If you look closely at the bracket matrix, you will see Arizona jumped to the 3 line on a lot of brackets this morning

Palm has us in the East as a #3.

NYCat · Post by **NYCat** » Sun Mar 11, 2018 11:01 am

Here's the top 4 seeds based purely on the bracket matrix average

1. Virginia
2. Purdue
3. Tennessee
4. Wichita State

1. Villanova
2. Cincinnati
3. Michigan State
4. Texas tech

1. Kansas
2. Duke
3. Michigan
4. Arizona

1. Xavier
2. North Carolina
3. Auburn
4. West Virginia

Phylek · Post by **Phylek** » Sun Mar 11, 2018 11:03 am

Irish27 wrote:
Alieberman wrote:If you look closely at the bracket matrix, you will see Arizona jumped to the 3 line on a lot of brackets this morning
Palm has us in the East as a #3.

That's a pretty good looking draw. Virginia as the 1 isn't ideal, but I like our team against them. And he has us in the south, not the east.

ProfessorFate · Post by **ProfessorFate** » Sun Mar 11, 2018 11:18 am

It's very possible that a Davidson win pushes assu out

NYCat · Post by **NYCat** » Sun Mar 11, 2018 11:23 am

ASUHATER! wrote:Looking at bracket matrix and elsewhere it seems like we're going to stay a 4. Too bad no one got to watch our game last night

I don't think it mattered. The Pac 12 is bad and is anchoring Arizona down, it's the 6th or 7th worst conference. The two SEC teams won the regular season conference that is getting 8 teams in, one of those schools can win the conference tournament as well and the other lost a key player to season ending injury about a month ago.

RaisingArizona · Post by **RaisingArizona** » Sun Mar 11, 2018 12:02 pm

It would shock me if Auburn got a three seed over us. They are:

9-6 in their last 15
5-5 In the last ten
2-4 since one of their only two “good” bigs were lost for the year

They have some really nice perimeter pieces but that is an unbalanced team.

RaisingArizona · Post by **RaisingArizona** » Sun Mar 11, 2018 12:06 pm

Phylek wrote:
NYCat wrote:Here's Bracket Matrix most accurate bracket as of Sunday morning

https://bracketville.wordpress.com/bracketology/" target="_blank

West:
1. Xavier
2. North Carolina
3. Michigan
4. Arizona
5. Kentucky

Bracket matrix 2nd most accurate bracket as of Sunday morning

https://theathletic.com/268903/2018/03/ ... -bursting/" target="_blank

West:

1. Xavier
2. North Carolina
3. Texas Tech
4. Arizona
5. Gonzaga
Other than Xavier, I don't like either one of those.

Either way, Xavier is so screwed.

Xavier won’t be screwed by the draw. They’ll be screwed by the fact that, aside from Bluett, they’re simply not very good at basketball. Single biggest paper tiger 1 seed in the almost 30 years that I’ve been watching college basketball.

UAEebs86 · Post by **UAEebs86** » Sun Mar 11, 2018 12:08 pm

ProfessorFate wrote:It's very possible that a Davidson win pushes assu out

Wildcats win!

Spaceman Spiff · Post by **Spaceman Spiff** » Sun Mar 11, 2018 12:10 pm

UAEebs86 wrote:
ProfessorFate wrote:It's very possible that a Davidson win pushes assu out
Wildcats win!

Please, please, please...eff ASU.

NYCat · Post by **NYCat** » Sun Mar 11, 2018 12:10 pm

RaisingArizona wrote:It would shock me if Auburn got a three seed over us. They are:

9-6 in their last 15
5-5 In the last ten
2-4 since one of their only two “good” bigs were lost for the year

They have some really nice perimeter pieces but that is an unbalanced team.

None of those things matter, neither do conference tournaments as much as years past. The committee has repeatedly said, it's the whole overall season as a whole. The NCAA Twitter feed has many interviews where you can see the chairman of the committee (interviewed by Andy Katz) say what is and what isn't important or a negative.

They're being pretty transparent this year with how they're doing the brackets.

Alieberman · Post by **Alieberman** » Sun Mar 11, 2018 12:15 pm

NYCat wrote:
RaisingArizona wrote:It would shock me if Auburn got a three seed over us. They are:

9-6 in their last 15
5-5 In the last ten
2-4 since one of their only two “good” bigs were lost for the year

They have some really nice perimeter pieces but that is an unbalanced team.
None of those things matter, neither do conference tournaments. The committee has repeatedly said, it's the whole overall season. The NCAA Twitter feed has many interviews where you can see the chairman (interviewed by Andy Katz) say what is and what isn't important or a negative.

True but the NCAA announced Auburn was team #5 and Arizona #15.... 4weeks ago.... since Auburn has gone (3-4) and Arizona has gone (7-1)... we have passed them.

RaisingArizona · Post by **RaisingArizona** » Sun Mar 11, 2018 12:16 pm

Tennessee goes down as expected. I think that we’re the number 11 overall seed and the number three in the West. Tennessee will be the last three. Though I could see flipping Arizona and Tennessee.

1s
Virginia
Villanova
Kansas
Xavier

2s
UNC
Duke
Purdue
Cincinnati

3s
Michigan State
Michigan
Arizona
Tennessee

I think that top 12 is pretty clear.

4/5 seed picture is a mess IMO.

SabinoDrifter · Post by **SabinoDrifter** » Sun Mar 11, 2018 12:18 pm

Irish27 wrote:
Alieberman wrote:If you look closely at the bracket matrix, you will see Arizona jumped to the 3 line on a lot of brackets this morning
Palm has us in the East as a #3.

He also had UA in Dallas for some dumb reason. I pointed out that Dallas is twice the distance from Tucson when compared to San Diego.

RaisingArizona · Post by **RaisingArizona** » Sun Mar 11, 2018 12:23 pm

NYCat wrote:
RaisingArizona wrote:It would shock me if Auburn got a three seed over us. They are:

9-6 in their last 15
5-5 In the last ten
2-4 since one of their only two “good” bigs were lost for the year

They have some really nice perimeter pieces but that is an unbalanced team.
None of those things matter, neither do conference tournaments as much as years past. The committee has repeatedly said, it's the whole overall season as a whole. The NCAA Twitter feed has many interviews where you can see the chairman of the committee (interviewed by Andy Katz) say what is and what isn't important or a negative.

They're being pretty transparent this year with how they're doing the brackets.

If you can link the interview where they say that the loss of key players or playing poorly down the stretch don’t matter I would love to see it.

Auburn profile is iffy at best. They were so high weeks ago because of the extreme win percentage. They had the Xavier/Cincinnati profile but lost the main component of it by fading down the stretch.

catgrad97 · Post by **catgrad97** » Sun Mar 11, 2018 12:24 pm

Just turned on CBS right now, and Palm ALSO (?!) has USC grouped with ASU as two of the First Four Out.

We need to stop quoting Palm as an authority here, as that is a ludicrous, baseless pairing.

RaisingArizona · Post by **RaisingArizona** » Sun Mar 11, 2018 12:27 pm

Alieberman wrote:
NYCat wrote:
RaisingArizona wrote:It would shock me if Auburn got a three seed over us. They are:

9-6 in their last 15
5-5 In the last ten
2-4 since one of their only two “good” bigs were lost for the year

They have some really nice perimeter pieces but that is an unbalanced team.
None of those things matter, neither do conference tournaments. The committee has repeatedly said, it's the whole overall season. The NCAA Twitter feed has many interviews where you can see the chairman (interviewed by Andy Katz) say what is and what isn't important or a negative.
True but the NCAA announced Auburn was team #5 and Arizona #15.... 4weeks ago.... since Auburn has gone (3-4) and Arizona has gone (7-1)... we have passed them.

And on top of that lost a significant contributor at a position that they were already deficient at.

97cats · Post by **97cats** » Sun Mar 11, 2018 12:27 pm

three seed WEST region

Longhorned · Post by **Longhorned** » Sun Mar 11, 2018 12:29 pm

Longhorned · Post by **Longhorned** » Sun Mar 11, 2018 12:31 pm

If you’re a deserving 1-seed, do you deserve Arizona or Auburn in the Sweet 16?

NYCat · Post by **NYCat** » Sun Mar 11, 2018 12:32 pm

We're getting UNC if we're the #3

RaisingArizona · Post by **RaisingArizona** » Sun Mar 11, 2018 12:34 pm

97cats wrote:three seed WEST region

It really seems like the most logical resolution. Sneaky feeling that Gonzaga is the west’s Four seed as was suggested earlier by another poster.

Irish27 · Post by **Irish27** » Sun Mar 11, 2018 12:37 pm

97cats wrote:three seed WEST region

I heard asu is #3 seed in the NIT.

97cats · Post by **97cats** » Sun Mar 11, 2018 12:37 pm

NYCat wrote:We're getting UNC if we're the #3

maybe - but I believe the overall profile of AZ will make the the three seed WEST Region regardless.

Pac12 outright Reg season and tourney champs in decisive fashion - the entire body of work is the theme and that includes the back quarter of the season too.

im still holding out for Duke

Phylek · Post by **Phylek** » Sun Mar 11, 2018 12:42 pm

I expect both Arizona and Gonzaga in the west. There aren't many quality, high profile, west coast teams. Gotta keep the ones you have in the west bracket.

NYCat · Post by **NYCat** » Sun Mar 11, 2018 12:44 pm

97cats wrote:
NYCat wrote:We're getting UNC if we're the #3
maybe - but I believe the overall profile of AZ will make the the three seed WEST Region regardless.

Pac12 outright Reg season and tourney champs in decisive fashion - the entire body of work is the theme and that includes the back quarter of the season too.

im still holding out for Duke

Xavier is the weakest #1 seed and will get shipped out West and UNC is the strongest #2 seed, that's how they always done things. Which is why I wanted a #4 seed the whole time whether it was vs Xavier or Kansas, better matchups in the S16

Overall #1 seed = weakest #2 seed
2nd #1 seed = second weakest #2 seed
3rd #1 seed = 2nd best #2 seed
4th #1 seed = best #2 seed

So that turns into

#1 Virginia = #2 Purdue
#1 Villanova = #2 Cincinnati
#1 Kansas = #2 Duke
#1 Xavier = #2 North Carolina

I want a #4 seed, of course there's a risk with getting a #5 Gonzaga or Kentucky in the Rd of 32

Alieberman · Post by **Alieberman** » Sun Mar 11, 2018 12:45 pm

Matrix just updated and now we are right behind Auburn (Auburn 12 / Arizona 13) with some brackets still listing us as a #5 which is truly impossible

97cats · Post by **97cats** » Sun Mar 11, 2018 12:51 pm

Phylek wrote:I expect both Arizona and Gonzaga in the west. There aren't many quality, high profile, west coast teams. Gotta keep the ones you have in the west bracket.

I agree with this.

Gonzaga in the top half and AZ the three...any chance we get Duke? or is it 100% Carolina?

Irish27 · Post by **Irish27** » Sun Mar 11, 2018 12:53 pm

Who will be the #1 seed in the West?

97cats · Post by **97cats** » Sun Mar 11, 2018 12:54 pm

NYCat wrote:
Xavier is the weakest #1 seed and will get shipped out West and UNC is the strongest #2 seed, that's how they always done things. Which is why I wanted a #4 seed the whole time whether it was vs Xavier or Kansas, better matchups in the S16

Overall #1 seed = weakest #2 seed
2nd #1 seed = second weakest #2 seed
3rd #1 seed = 2nd best #2 seed
4th #1 seed = best #2 seed

So that turns into

#1 Virginia = #2 Purdue
#1 Villanova = #2 Cincinnati
#1 Kansas = #2 Duke
#1 Xavier = #2 North Carolina

I want a #4 seed, of course there's a risk with getting a #5 Gonzaga or Kentucky in the Rd of 32

oh my man I get the position youre taking and its a good one - I do believe however that the committee will try and keep Arizona and Gonzaga and maybe St Mary's in the WEST if possible.

I'm of the opinion that AZ has played its way into the three and it allows Gonzaga to be the traditional five seed and stay home WEST.

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