Bear Down Wildcats

EastCoastCat wrote: ↑Fri Mar 08, 2024 3:43 pm What I love about this team is all 4 positions (except for Ballo) can score either by taking it to the rack, scoring from midrange, or nailing 3’s. And with Ballo’s ability to receive passes down low for buckets we just have so many options.

Defending this team takes a Herculean effort.

And that’s not even taking into account the outstanding defense we play.

Lute4God wrote: ↑Fri Mar 08, 2024 4:39 pm

EastCoastCat wrote: ↑Fri Mar 08, 2024 3:43 pm What I love about this team is all 4 positions (except for Ballo) can score either by taking it to the rack, scoring from midrange, or nailing 3’s. And with Ballo’s ability to receive passes down low for buckets we just have so many options.

Defending this team takes a Herculean effort.

And that’s not even taking into account the outstanding defense we play.

Seems Caleb gets out-sized attention and love or hate depending on how closely the talking heads know him and the team. It's great to have a go-to guy who has so often been that at big moments, esp in the Conference.

But more important on offense is Tommy's system plus all the playmakers this team has. Is there a more efficient play than Larsson coming from the open wing off a Ballo screen? Also there's EvanMiya Pac12 #1 rated Jaden Bradley who seems to be playing his best ball of the season with 20 AST / 4 TOs in his previous 4 games (1/1 @ Pauley). Guard play overall has been getting as good as it has all season and now KJ Lewis puts up 23/5/4 with 1 TO!

What a great time to be a UA fan!

Beachcat97 wrote: ↑Thu Mar 07, 2024 3:42 pm

PHXCATS wrote: ↑Thu Mar 07, 2024 3:25 pm

Beachcat97 wrote: ↑Thu Mar 07, 2024 3:18 pm

Alieberman wrote: ↑Thu Mar 07, 2024 1:42 pm

Beachcat97 wrote: ↑Thu Mar 07, 2024 1:27 pm

No. We control our fate. If we don't lose again before Selection Sunday, we're a 1 seed, regardless of what Tennessee does.

There is no way you can say that with any type of certainty

We're #4 in NET and #4 in the Selection Committee's own rankings. We can't fall in the rankings without losing, even if Tennessee wins out (which they won't).

Arizona has lost once since then while Tennessee has gone 6-0 including 3 ranked wins and 3 road wins (2 of which are ranked teams)

Maybe hunting all my posts has hurt your ability to think and find facts

Nothing you said at all impacts what I said. You're just blathering.

Go Cats!

KaibabKat wrote: ↑Sat Mar 09, 2024 12:52 pm
Kentucky beating Tennessee later today would not be an upset.

84Cat wrote: ↑Sat Mar 09, 2024 1:17 pm

KaibabKat wrote: ↑Sat Mar 09, 2024 12:52 pm
Kentucky beating Tennessee later today would not be an upset.

Vegas disagrees

Chicat wrote: ↑Sat Mar 09, 2024 1:16 pm Kaibab did you come up with that? Because that is super interesting.

KaibabKat wrote: ↑Sat Mar 09, 2024 1:30 pm

Chicat wrote: ↑Sat Mar 09, 2024 1:16 pm Kaibab did you come up with that? Because that is super interesting.

Yes

cerec_cat wrote: ↑Sat Mar 09, 2024 2:29 pm Houston looks tough

g32knights wrote: ↑Sat Mar 09, 2024 3:17 pm Watching Tennessee is a chore. It's Knecht and literally no one else. Limit him at all and they are an easy out.

pc in NM wrote: ↑Sat Mar 09, 2024 3:25 pm

g32knights wrote: ↑Sat Mar 09, 2024 3:17 pm Watching Tennessee is a chore. It's Knecht and literally no one else. Limit him at all and they are an easy out.

Your first time watching them?

UK is playing awesome D so far...

And, looks to me like Tenn wins this game , though I hope I'm wrong

g32knights wrote: ↑Sat Mar 09, 2024 3:40 pm

pc in NM wrote: ↑Sat Mar 09, 2024 3:25 pm

g32knights wrote: ↑Sat Mar 09, 2024 3:17 pm Watching Tennessee is a chore. It's Knecht and literally no one else. Limit him at all and they are an easy out.

Your first time watching them?

UK is playing awesome D so far...

And, looks to me like Tenn wins this game , though I hope I'm wrong

Yes, I've watched them. If you play any type of good defense it's Knecht playing 1 on 5. Ziegler might give you something, but that's about it. Everyone else is bricking everything.

pc in NM wrote: ↑Sat Mar 09, 2024 4:29 pm I'll settle for a #1 seed in the West!

BTFD!!!!

g32knights wrote: ↑Mon Mar 11, 2024 7:29 am Whether the Cats or a two or a one seed, Gonzaga is going to be in the pod.

Beachcat97 wrote: ↑Mon Mar 11, 2024 9:03 am

g32knights wrote: ↑Mon Mar 11, 2024 7:29 am Whether the Cats or a two or a one seed, Gonzaga is going to be in the pod.

Bring ‘em on.

84Cat wrote: ↑Mon Mar 11, 2024 10:03 am We got work to do this week

AZCatGirl wrote: ↑Mon Mar 11, 2024 12:11 pm

84Cat wrote: ↑Mon Mar 11, 2024 10:03 am We got work to do this week

The only way this even has a chance of happening is if we drop Thursday's game, which we wont.

azcat49 wrote: ↑Mon Mar 11, 2024 2:15 pm Drake would beat Gonzaga

84Cat wrote: ↑Mon Mar 11, 2024 5:28 pm Why aren't we in the West? I think we get past the sweet 16 although Creighton is pretty good

Beachcat97 wrote: ↑Tue Mar 12, 2024 9:33 am I can't take that bracket sim seriously.

g32knights wrote: ↑Mon Mar 11, 2024 7:29 am Whether the Cats are a two or a one seed, Gonzaga is going to be in the pod.

RichardCranium wrote: ↑Tue Mar 12, 2024 7:42 pm

g32knights wrote: ↑Mon Mar 11, 2024 7:29 am Whether the Cats are a two or a one seed, Gonzaga is going to be in the pod.

I doubt it. St. Mary's is gonna have that slot. Zags will have to go to a different region, methinks.

RichardCranium wrote: ↑Tue Mar 12, 2024 7:42 pm

g32knights wrote: ↑Mon Mar 11, 2024 7:29 am Whether the Cats are a two or a one seed, Gonzaga is going to be in the pod.

I doubt it. St. Mary's is gonna have that slot. Zags will have to go to a different region, methinks.

As college basketball changes, so does our model to predict upsets in the NCAA Tournament

Peter Keating and Jordan Brenner - Mar 14, 2024

It’s all about employing a high-risk, high-reward style. Our statistical model, Slingshot, has found patterns among successful Bracket Breakers that have stood the test of time. Some tend to shoot lots of three-pointers, risking a lower-percentage shot for an extra point. Others send additional bodies to pursue offensive rebounds, gambling that their extra shot attempts will outweigh increased transition opportunities for their opponent. Other teams extend their defense, pressuring the ball and disrupting the passing lanes hoping that they will force bundles of turnovers. And many play a slow tempo: The fewer total possessions in a game, the less chance that the better team has to separate itself.
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And top seeds are even more vulnerable when they don’t take strategic steps to insulate themselves from underdogs’ preferred tactics. Safe giants avoid turnovers, dominate the boards at both ends and limit opponents’ three-point shooting. Think of it this way: Over the course of a six-game run, most teams will have to win a game where they don’t shoot well.
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We’ll discuss this in more detail once we all have actual matchups to analyze. But here are a few effects to keep in mind.

First, any style that builds possessions is better than nothing for high seeds. Every year, some teams earn high seeds even though they’re not particularly strong at offensive or defensive rebounding or at avoiding or creating turnovers. We call them “Generic Giants,” and they lose in big upsets about twice as often as all other favorites. They’re often terrific shooters — they pretty much have to be. But in March, one wrong-footed stretch can send you packing. (Red flag this year: Kansas.)

Second, even giants who build possessions are at risk to a group of underdogs we call Slow Killers. This statistical family grinds down and suffocates its foes, relying on second-chance shots and, when they have to, threes to keep themselves in close games. They’re responsible for a long line of upsets that were memorable but not easy for opposing coaches or media pundits to explain, like Iowa State over LSU and Wisconsin in 2022, Xavier over Florida State and Arizona in 2017, Wichita State over Kansas in 2015 and Harvard over Cincinnati in 2014. In 2021, 11-seed UCLA, 12-seed Oregon State and 13-seed North Texas, who posted a combined nine tournament wins, all belonged to this cluster. We’ve said before that this isn’t a very analytical way to put things, but what successful Slow Killers have in common is that they drive superior opponents crazy; they discombobulate giants used to controlling games.

Third, longshots that rely on offensive rebounding can be very effective underdogs — except against favorites with the same key strength. Then it’s like playing your older brother, which is never fun for the little guy. Last year, Providence ranked 16th in the country in offensive rebounding, but its fate as an 11-seed was basically sealed when it drew Kentucky, which ranked No. 1 in that category. (And their matchup played true to form, with the Wildcats crushing the Friars on the boards.)

In addition to these considerations, we’ve bolted two more factors onto the ensemble of calculations that Slingshot performs. One is something we call Similarity, where our model looks at a matchup and measures which contests from our spreadsheets (which go back to 2007) are its closest statistical matches. We’ve learned that similar games often tell us something that bit-by-bit analysis of data points doesn’t capture, sometimes with eye-popping results.
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Slingshot understands pace better than “slow tempo is good for underdogs,” which is true but incomplete. A team looks fast when it runs a quick offense. And offensive pace drives a team’s ranking in overall tempo as measured by possessions per game. But we have learned that it also matters how a longshot plays when it doesn’t have the ball. Indeed, a string of very deep underdogs sporting wide gaps between their average possession length on offense and defense have pulled off big upsets in recent years. To name a few: Ohio as a 14-seed in 2010 and a 13-seed in 2012, Florida Gulf Coast in 2015, 13-seed Buffalo and 13-seed Marshall in 2018 and 11-seed Syracuse in 2021. This is a fascinating group of teams with an underappreciated ability to play fast on offense while making their opponents grind out possessions at the other end. And we now incorporate metrics for possession length into Slingshot, too.

Slingshot is constantly evolving. And in the ever-changing college basketball world, its next discovery might be soon. Perhaps, as we build a greater sample size of upsets in the transfer portal era, we’ll find that continuity matters. Maybe, as expansion creates mega-conferences, we’ll find that conference strength plays an increasingly important role in projecting upsets. Maybe NIL will increase the disparity between the haves and have-nots, leading to fewer upsets altogether. Or maybe it actually will trigger more unexpected results.

We’re excited to see what comes next. In the meantime, it’s time to embrace the chaos. Bring on the upsets.

AZCatGirl wrote: ↑Fri Mar 15, 2024 12:07 pm Mississippi St.defeating Tennessee in their first game of the SEC tournament is pretty shocking. Lunardi thinks this opens the door for UNC getting the one seed, but could we still have a chance if we win the next two games?

84Cat wrote: ↑Fri Mar 15, 2024 12:10 pm UNC is 7th in the net, we're 4th. That would be total bs for them to pass us. Either the net is now worthless or the Pac12 is getting screwed once again