Blue Ribbon Yearbook puts Wildcats in No. 1 spot

[HiCat]

The Arizona Wildcats were named the No. 1 preseason team in Blue Ribbon College Basketball Yearbook on Monday, making the Wildcats a consensus top pick among the major preseason annuals.

Earlier this month, Athlon Sports and Street & Smith's ranked UA No. 1, while Lindy's had Arizona second behind Michigan State.

Blue Ribbon Yearbook editor Chris Dortch said the Wildcats edged out Michigan State for the top spot in his voluminous preseason annual.

“Both Arizona and Michigan State were worthy No. 1 candidates, and a strong case could have been made for Duke and Kansas, too," Dortch said in a statement. "But in the final analysis, our writers and editors liked the size and experience Arizona can put on the floor.”

http://tucson.com/sports/arizonawildcat ... b9766.html" target="_blank

[CalStateTempe]

Sweet!

When does the PAC 12 schedule come out?

[Beachcat97]

As loaded as this team is, I'm still not sure they deserve the expectations that the '14 and '15 teams had. TJ was a game changer.

[PHXCATS]

Sweet!

When does the PAC 12 schedule come out?

This week

[Spaceman Spiff]

As loaded as this team is, I'm still not sure they deserve the expectations that the '14 and '15 teams had. TJ was a game changer.

This team is apples to oranges with 13-14 and 14-15 (why can't fruit be compared).

13-14 and 14-15 were dominant defensive and rebounding teams first. This team is not the equal of those teams on D unless things go very well. I think we have more potential to be a dominant rebounding team.

Offensively, this team is better than 13-14 and 14-15. Trier and Alkins are a pair of scorers who can shoot it that we didn't have then. AG/Nick and RHJ/Stan were great, but one in each pair was a non-shooter who defenses could slough off. We don't have a single starter the D doesn't need to honor from 3 this year. Ayton is an unreal offensive talent. We've never had a guy like that, period.

We have depth this year that exceeds those years. 13-14, we were 7 deep that cut to 6 after Ashley went down. This year, Randoph, Akot, Lee, Barcello, Smith and Pinder are all in the mix for some minutes.

[Merkin]

Can't remember what the exact post was on twitter, but UA is projected to be the #1 offensive teams in the nation.

[CalStateTempe]

Hell yeah!

Thanks machina.

[Spaceman Spiff]

Can't remember what the exact post was on twitter, but UA is projected to be the #1 offensive teams in the nation.

Yeah, that seems legit. Duke has a lot of talent, but will wind up starting some guys who have had trouble consistently hitting the 3. We have a lot of shooters, a consistent post player in Dusan and firepower off the bench.

Not to keep harping, but the lack of an elite PG is really all we lack. From there, it's small things, like Dusan's post passing and keeping Ayton from floating too far outside.

[CalStateTempe]

I guess the question we all are wondering is, do we have enough talent and creaters to overcome the lack of an elite point guard?

[Spaceman Spiff]

I guess the question we all are wondering is, do we have enough talent and creaters to overcome the lack of an elite point guard?

That question will be answered in March. Fingers crossed, the answer is yes.

[Beachcat97]

Offensively, this team is better than 13-14 and 14-15. Trier and Alkins are a pair of scorers who can shoot it that we didn't have then. AG/Nick and RHJ/Stan were great, but one in each pair was a non-shooter who defenses could slough off. We don't have a single starter the D doesn't need to honor from 3 this year. Ayton is an unreal offensive talent. We've never had a guy like that, period.

We have depth this year that exceeds those years. 13-14, we were 7 deep that cut to 6 after Ashley went down. This year, Randoph, Akot, Lee, Barcello, Smith and Pinder are all in the mix for some minutes.

This is an incredibly optimistic post, Spiff. I like it!

That's a good point about our three point shooting this year, but the stats don't really bear it out. AT and RA shot under 40% from three last year. PJC shot 42%. BR and AB should help in this area. No idea about Akot. Bottom line, though: I'm not sure we can expect a dangerous 3-point shooting team. Lauri and Kadeem were our two best in this category last year.

Maybe Ayton is the game-changer we're all hoping for. This obviously creates more open looks from 3.

I do agree about our depth, but maybe you're not quite giving that '14 and '15 team their due.

[gumby]

Several posts in and nobody has said he prefers we "fly under the radar." Nobody has said, "Great, now we have a target on our back!"

This place is slipping! We have responsibilities to meet!

In these crazy, scary times, I need the comfort of the predictable.

[Longhorned]

I'd rather be flying under the radar. That way, nobody would know we're coming, thanks to east coast bias.

[Beachcat97]

UNC, Nova, Duke, UConn, L'ville, UK, UConn, Duke, UNC, Kansas...those are your last 10 champions. I'd argue only UConn was flying under the radar. Maybe it's time to embrace flying above radar.

[YoDeFoe]

Gumby look what you've done.

[gumby]

I'd rather be flying under the radar. That way, nobody would know we're coming, thanks to east coast bias.

Ah, this with some meat loaf and mac n cheese is all the comfort I need.

[gumby]

Gumby look what you've done.

Brought order to a frightening world? You're welcome.

[YoDeFoe]

Offensively, this team is better than 13-14 and 14-15. Trier and Alkins are a pair of scorers who can shoot it that we didn't have then. AG/Nick and RHJ/Stan were great, but one in each pair was a non-shooter who defenses could slough off. We don't have a single starter the D doesn't need to honor from 3 this year. Ayton is an unreal offensive talent. We've never had a guy like that, period.

We have depth this year that exceeds those years. 13-14, we were 7 deep that cut to 6 after Ashley went down. This year, Randoph, Akot, Lee, Barcello, Smith and Pinder are all in the mix for some minutes.

This is an incredibly optimistic post, Spiff. I like it!

That's a good point about our three point shooting this year, but the stats don't really bear it out. AT and RA shot under 40% from three last year. PJC shot 42%. BR and AB should help in this area. No idea about Akot. Bottom line, though: I'm not sure we can expect a dangerous 3-point shooting team. Lauri and Kadeem were our two best in this category last year.

Maybe Ayton is the game-changer we're all hoping for. This obviously creates more open looks from 3.

I do agree about our depth, but maybe you're not quite giving that '14 and '15 team their due.

The emphasis was the comparison between this coming season's three point shooting and the same for the vaunted '14 and '15 teams, not a comparison between this year and last year.

For '14, Gabe was our only shooter with more than 30 attempts and more than a 37% 3P%. Nick was just under.

For '15, the same, with Stanley shooting just over 37% to replace Nick and join Gabe.

For this coming season we can expect PJC, Trier, Alkins, and Ayton to clear that hurdle, and likely one or more of Randolph, Smith, Barcello, and Akot. We're night and day a more capable three point shooting team than those two great years.

Whether or not we're better than last year isn't really the point. Last year, between the suspension and the injuries (including that final one, Rawle's shooting hand), is a tough year to compare against. If Rawle doesn't break his hand we're potentially talking about back to back FF runs. So replicating last year's success of a conf title, a conf tourney title, and a ________ in the tournament would be aspirational. We shouldn't be looking back saying "how can we fix what went wrong" against last season without acknowledging all that went wrong outside of the team's control.

[Spaceman Spiff]

Offensively, this team is better than 13-14 and 14-15. Trier and Alkins are a pair of scorers who can shoot it that we didn't have then. AG/Nick and RHJ/Stan were great, but one in each pair was a non-shooter who defenses could slough off. We don't have a single starter the D doesn't need to honor from 3 this year. Ayton is an unreal offensive talent. We've never had a guy like that, period.

We have depth this year that exceeds those years. 13-14, we were 7 deep that cut to 6 after Ashley went down. This year, Randoph, Akot, Lee, Barcello, Smith and Pinder are all in the mix for some minutes.

This is an incredibly optimistic post, Spiff. I like it!

That's a good point about our three point shooting this year, but the stats don't really bear it out. AT and RA shot under 40% from three last year. PJC shot 42%. BR and AB should help in this area. No idea about Akot. Bottom line, though: I'm not sure we can expect a dangerous 3-point shooting team. Lauri and Kadeem were our two best in this category last year.

Maybe Ayton is the game-changer we're all hoping for. This obviously creates more open looks from 3.

I do agree about our depth, but maybe you're not quite giving that '14 and '15 team their due.

Allonzo was 39% and Rawle was 37%. Those are both good percentages that both equate to above 50% from 2. Nick and Stanley were 37% each, AG was 35% and Rondae was 20%.

Like I said, Allonzo and Rawle are a better shooting combo than we had. I disagree about the stats. Realistically, I would say above 35% is where someone becomes an asset as a three point shooter. There's a bit of a tradeoff because the 3 does not draw a foul like shooting 2's will.

[Longhorned]

Good shooting is for teams not good enough to grab offensive rebounds.

[Beachcat97]

Good shooting is for teams not good enough to grab offensive rebounds.

I mean, yeah. But it's hard to advance in March if you go cold from outside.

[Beachcat97]

Like I said, Allonzo and Rawle are a better shooting combo than we had. I disagree about the stats. Realistically, I would say above 35% is where someone becomes an asset as a three point shooter. There's a bit of a tradeoff because the 3 does not draw a foul like shooting 2's will.

I agree that AT and RA is as good (and as experienced) an offensive backcourt we've had under CSM. Throw in BR and whatever we get from PJC/AB, and we're even better.

And maybe having Ayton/Ristic underneath will bump up our team 3FG%. Hope so.

[gumby]

Good shooting is for teams not good enough to grab offensive rebounds.

Exactly. Pussification of sports!

[YoDeFoe]

Good shooting is for teams not good enough to grab offensive rebounds.

We do need to get better at offensive rebounding. That's fair. We need to get better at rebounding on both sides of the ball.

Those '14 and '15 teams were #1 in the conference in offensive and defensive rebounding. Last year's team was 4th and 2nd in off/def in conf.

Funny enough the weakness isn't at PG and C - PJC is about as good of a rebounder as TJ and Dusan is a better rebounder than Zeus.

It's our wings and forwards that need to step up their rebounding.

Trier stepped up big last year, nearly doubling his defensive rebounding (though he's pretty non-existent on the offensive glass). Rawle posted a respectable freshman year rebounding rate, though he fell below Stanley, RHJ, and AG. Hopefully both continue to improve. Ayton should be a step up from Lauri, who was respectable (better than Ashley, worse than Gordon). Ayton was a rebounding machine in his AAU and HS days. Pinder was a good rebounder in his minutes last year, which is great given that's all I expect him to do with the ball.

And then the young guys coming in... they seem prepared to rebound more so than last year's recruits who took to it late (or in Kobi's case, not at all). Randolph, Smith, Lee and Barcello all flew to the ball in Spain.

[Merkin]

PJC is about as good of a rebounder as TJ and Dusan is a better rebounder than Zeus.

TJ really had a nose for where the ball was going, 3.8 boards v. 2.5 for PJC their last seasons. Thought TJ had more though.

Zeus 9.3 v. 5.5 for Deuce last seasons.

Realizing of course TJ and Zeus played more minutes.

Also wanted to add both TJ and Zeus made other players better. Zeus was always in position blocking out so other players could get the boards.

So disagree with your assessment.

[Longhorned]

I just want to go back to having a team that clanks and boards and clanks and boards. And then runs down the clock on the defensive end by not allowing a good shot. Keep repeating until the other team gets gravel in their souls and has no energy left to finish the game. Now that was basketball.

[Spaceman Spiff]

Good shooting is for teams not good enough to grab offensive rebounds.

We do need to get better at offensive rebounding. That's fair. We need to get better at rebounding on both sides of the ball.

Those '14 and '15 teams were #1 in the conference in offensive and defensive rebounding. Last year's team was 4th and 2nd in off/def in conf.

Funny enough the weakness isn't at PG and C - PJC is about as good of a rebounder as TJ and Dusan is a better rebounder than Zeus.

It's our wings and forwards that need to step up their rebounding.

Trier stepped up big last year, nearly doubling his defensive rebounding (though he's pretty non-existent on the offensive glass). Rawle posted a respectable freshman year rebounding rate, though he fell below Stanley, RHJ, and AG. Hopefully both continue to improve. Ayton should be a step up from Lauri, who was respectable (better than Ashley, worse than Gordon). Ayton was a rebounding machine in his AAU and HS days. Pinder was a good rebounder in his minutes last year, which is great given that's all I expect him to do with the ball.

And then the young guys coming in... they seem prepared to rebound more so than last year's recruits who took to it late (or in Kobi's case, not at all). Randolph, Smith, Lee and Barcello all flew to the ball in Spain.

Ayton has so many physical gifts, I think it would be borderline impossible for him not to be a good rebounder. If he devotes effort to it, he will be a dominant rebounder. Dude is an athletic 7'1 with a strong frame and huge wingspan.

If Rawle and Zo improve, we should be as good as previous years. Rawle showed a lot of potential (like dominating at ASU) on the glass. If he is consistent, we have a lot of potential.

Defense is the biggest question, but we have a lot of potential on the glass. That's a big reason I think we need to have Ayton not drift on the perimeter. He can hit perimeter shots, but he can be dominant if that's combined with him being aggressive on the offensive boards.

[YoDeFoe]

PJC is about as good of a rebounder as TJ and Dusan is a better rebounder than Zeus.

TJ really had a nose for where the ball was going, 3.8 boards v. 2.5 for PJC their last seasons. Thought TJ had more though.

Zeus 9.3 v. 5.5 for Deuce last seasons.

Realizing of course TJ and Zeus played more minutes.

Also wanted to add both TJ and Zeus made other players better. Zeus was always in position blocking out so other players could get the boards.

So disagree with your assessment.

Best to look at Reb% rather than values themselves when comparing.

2015

2017

You're right that I oversold PJC - TJ was clearly better his Sr year (though comparable as a junior). Maybe PJC steps up like TJ.

Again though you'll see the bigger drop is among our wings and forwards.

[Spaceman Spiff]

PJC is about as good of a rebounder as TJ and Dusan is a better rebounder than Zeus.

TJ really had a nose for where the ball was going, 3.8 boards v. 2.5 for PJC their last seasons. Thought TJ had more though.

Zeus 9.3 v. 5.5 for Deuce last seasons.

Realizing of course TJ and Zeus played more minutes.

Also wanted to add both TJ and Zeus made other players better. Zeus was always in position blocking out so other players could get the boards.

So disagree with your assessment.

Best to look at Reb% rather than values themselves when comparing.

2015

2017

Well, I disagree with both of you. I think the point Merkin has about Zeus is a good one, and not reflected in stats. Zeus was very good at blocking out. He did not lock up exceptional numbers, but he did not give up any offensive boards easily. Dusan does not box out as well.

I do think PJC is an underrated rebounder, and TJ's equal or superior. Parker is very good at chasing down mid-long bounces.

[gumby]

If Kaleb had OBJ's hands instead of DJT's, he would've led he nation in boards and dunks.

[Spaceman Spiff]

If Kaleb had OBJ's hands instead of DJT's, he would've led he nation in boards and dunks.

Or even Dusan's. If you could graft Dusan's ability to catch and finish onto Zeus, you'd have a 10 year NBA starter.

[YoDeFoe]

Well, I disagree with both of you. I think the point Merkin has about Zeus is a good one, and not reflected in stats. Zeus was very good at blocking out. He did not lock up exceptional numbers, but he did not give up any offensive boards easily. Dusan does not box out as well.

I do think PJC is an underrated rebounder, and TJ's equal or superior. Parker is very good at chasing down mid-long bounces.

That's an excellent point about Zeus and should always be noted when talking about his performance - he made the game so much easier for his teammates by boxing out, owning space in the paint and handing them the opportunity to rebound / attack the rim.

[ChooChooCat]

Ayton has so many physical gifts, I think it would be borderline impossible for him not to be a good rebounder. If he devotes effort to it, he will be a dominant rebounder. Dude is an athletic 7'1 with a strong frame and huge wingspan.

This was my only concern with Ayton. It's always been about effort. All I've heard though is being in a program like Arizona where he's challenged daily, is given structure, and is pushing him to be the best has no longer made effort a concern. That's from early reports mind you, so let's see how that translates to the real games.

If Rawle and Zo improve, we should be as good as previous years. Rawle showed a lot of potential (like dominating at ASU) on the glass. If he is consistent, we have a lot of potential.

Even Zo showed a lot of progression last year in this regards. He'll never be a plus rebounder, but it's something I'm sure he'll get at least moderately better at as well.

Defense is the biggest question, but we have a lot of potential on the glass. That's a big reason I think we need to have Ayton not drift on the perimeter. He can hit perimeter shots, but he can be dominant if that's combined with him being aggressive on the offensive boards.

I salivate at the thought of Trier, Rawle, one of Randolph/Akot, and Ayton being out on the court at the same time. With that particular lineup there's zero purpose for Ayton to be remotely near the perimeter. He's more likely to drift out to the perimeter when Dusan is playing alongside him for obvious reasons.

[Spaceman Spiff]

Ayton has so many physical gifts, I think it would be borderline impossible for him not to be a good rebounder. If he devotes effort to it, he will be a dominant rebounder. Dude is an athletic 7'1 with a strong frame and huge wingspan.

This was my only concern with Ayton. It's always been about effort. All I've heard though is being in a program like Arizona where he's challenged daily, is given structure, and is pushing him to be the best has no longer made effort a concern. That's from early reports mind you, so let's see how that translates to the real games.

If Rawle and Zo improve, we should be as good as previous years. Rawle showed a lot of potential (like dominating at ASU) on the glass. If he is consistent, we have a lot of potential.

Even Zo showed a lot of progression last year in this regards. He'll never be a plus rebounder, but it's something I'm sure he'll get at least moderately better at as well.

Defense is the biggest question, but we have a lot of potential on the glass. That's a big reason I think we need to have Ayton not drift on the perimeter. He can hit perimeter shots, but he can be dominant if that's combined with him being aggressive on the offensive boards.

I salivate at the thought of Trier, Rawle, one of Randolph/Akot, and Ayton being out on the court at the same time. With that particular lineup there's zero purpose for Ayton to be remotely near the perimeter. He's more likely to drift out to the perimeter when Dusan is playing alongside him for obvious reasons.

I certainly hope that having a coach like Miller to push him is good for Ayton. He has all the tools but floats mentally. If he takes to the structure and demands Miller gives him, he will be a monster. It is hard imagining Miller not demanding effort all the time.

The only thing that worries me about Ayton alone as a big is that his back to the basket game is still a little underdeveloped. I do think that lineup would have silly length, athleticism and flexibility. I just want to see where his post game is at.

When I saw him play in HS, he didn't look very comfortable in the post. Developing that would be a huge asset, so that he can go inside and outside at will. I think he could also be a dynamite roll guy in a pick and roll with Zo. If he rolls strong, he can get 3-4 alley oop lobs per game, because he can catch and finish basically everything tossed within 10 feet of the rim.

This isn't HS, where the D can lock in on Ayton. Zo/Rawle are so dangerous that the D has to honor them and Ayton can get open lanes for dunks.

[97cats]

McDonald's Red-Blue Game
Arizona
Fri. 10/20 7:00 PM PDT
Pac-12 Networks

Eastern New Mexico VS Arizona
Wed. 11/1 7:00 PM PDT
Pac-12 Networks

Chico State VS Arizona
Sun. 11/5 3:00 PM PST
Pac-12 Networks

Northern Arizona VS Arizona
Fri. 11/10 5:00 PM PST
Pac-12 Networks

UMBC VS Arizona
Sun. 11/12 3:00 PM PST
Pac-12 Networks

CSU Bakersfield VS Arizona
Thu. 11/16 7:00 PM PST
Pac-12 Networks

North Carolina State VS Arizona
Wed. 11/22 4:00 PM PST

Battle 4 Atlantis (Imperial Arena - Paradise Island, Bahamas)
Northern Iowa/SMU
Arizona
Thu. 11/23 TBD

Battle 4 Atlantis (Imperial Arena - Paradise Island, Bahamas)
Arizona vs. TBD

Arizona
Fri. 11/24 TBD

Battle 4 Atlantis (Imperial Arena - Paradise Island, Bahamas)

Long Beach State VS Arizona
Wed. 11/29 5:00 PM PST
Pac-12 Networks

Arizona VS UNLV
Sat. 12/2 7:00 PM PST
CBS Sports Network DETAILS

Texas A&M VS Arizona
Tue. 12/5 6:00 PM PST
ESPN2

Alabama VS Arizona
Sat. 12/9 7:00 PM PST
ESPN2

Arizona VS New Mexico
Sat. 12/16 5:00 PM PST
CBS Sports Network

North Dakota State VS Arizona
Mon. 12/18 6:00 PM PST
Pac-12 Networks

Connecticut VS Arizona
Thu. 12/21 6:00 PM PST
ESPN2

Arizona State VS Arizona
Sat. 12/30 6:00 PM PST
Pac-12 Networks

Arizona VS Utah
Thu. 1/4 6:00 PM PST
ESPN or ESPN2

Arizona VS Colorado
Sat. 1/6 11:00 AM PST
Pac-12 Networks

Oregon State VS Arizona
Thu. 1/11 6:00 PM PST
Pac-12 Networks

Oregon VS Arizona
Sat. 1/13 11:00 AM PST
ESPN or ESPN2

Arizona VS California
Wed. 1/17 6:00 PM PST
Pac-12 Networks

Arizona VS Stanford
Sat. 1/20 1:00 PM PST
CBS

Colorado VS Arizona
Thu. 1/25 5:30 PM PST
FS1

Utah VS Arizona
Sat. 1/27 2:30 PM PST
FOX

Arizona VS Washington State
Wed. 1/31 7:00 PM PST
Pac-12 Networks

Arizona VS Washington
Sat. 2/3 7:30 PM PST
Pac-12 Networks

UCLA VS Arizona
Thu. 2/8 7:00 PM PST
ESPN

USC VS Arizona
Sat. 2/10 7:15 PM PST
ESPN or ESPN2

Arizona VS Arizona State
Thu. 2/15 6:00 PM PST
ESPN or ESPN2

Arizona VS Oregon State
Thu. 2/22 6:00 PM PST
FS1

Arizona VS Oregon
Sat. 2/24 TBD
ESPN or ESPN2

Stanford VS Arizona
Thu. 3/1 7:00 PM PST
FS1

California VS Arizona
Sat. 3/3 TBD
Pac-12 Networks

[CalStateTempe]

Thanks 97!

Darn, I'll be in chile during their Bay Area swing.

Guess I have to drive to Eugene or make a LA trip to see the cats this year...

[CalStateTempe]

Wait waaaa? No LA trip? Bollocks to that.

[Puerco]

Allonzo was 39% and Rawle was 37%. Those are both good percentages that both equate to above 50% from 2. Nick and Stanley were 37% each, AG was 35% and Rondae was 20%.

Like I said, Allonzo and Rawle are a better shooting combo than we had. I disagree about the stats. Realistically, I would say above 35% is where someone becomes an asset as a three point shooter. There's a bit of a tradeoff because the 3 does not draw a foul like shooting 2's will.

If I recall, the 35% number is based on comparing with the average percentage of 2pt shots and modifying so that you end up with the same number of points per possession. So you should be thinking of 35% as the percentage someone needs to make to not be a liability. I'm not any more afraid of a 35% shooter taking a 3pt shot than I am of another average player taking any old shot within the arc. The one point to note is that most 3pt shooters don't average > 50% from within the arc, so the 3pt shot is their best option.

[Spaceman Spiff]

Allonzo was 39% and Rawle was 37%. Those are both good percentages that both equate to above 50% from 2. Nick and Stanley were 37% each, AG was 35% and Rondae was 20%.

Like I said, Allonzo and Rawle are a better shooting combo than we had. I disagree about the stats. Realistically, I would say above 35% is where someone becomes an asset as a three point shooter. There's a bit of a tradeoff because the 3 does not draw a foul like shooting 2's will.

If I recall, the 35% number is based on comparing with the average percentage of 2pt shots and modifying so that you end up with the same number of points per possession. So you should be thinking of 35% as the percentage someone needs to make to not be a liability. I'm not any more afraid of a 35% shooter taking a 3pt shot than I am of another average player taking any old shot within the arc. The one point to note is that most 3pt shooters don't average > 50% from within the arc, so the 3pt shot is their best option.

The 35% is my proprietary ( ) standard. Reason being, a 50% shooter from 2 is producing 1 point for every shot taken. A 3 point shooter produces 1 point per every shot taken if he makes 33% of his 3's, or 1 of every 3.

So why not 33%? There's an opportunity cost loss by shooting a 3. 2's more consistently draw fouls, which produce extra points and foul trouble for the D. I don't rate that super high, because most people either don't draw a ton of fouls (PJC), blend 3's with a fair number of drives (Zo), or just take a few and let the offense do its work getting the ball inside too.

There's also a balancing opportunity cost. IMO, and i've posted repeatedly about the issues the 13-14 team had after Ashley went down in this area, having people out there ready to take and make 3's is a dramatic help in spacing and creating driving lanes. The perfect offensive team is where all players are a threat from all positions, in order to spread the D to the max.

So, that's my thinking.

[Beachcat97]

Spiff is making a lot of good points about offense with respect to this year's team and potential.

Even if just the stats hold steady this season, our offense should be in good shape. If something unexpected happens (PJC is greatly improved on offense, one of the freshmen is tearing it up from day one, Ayton is hitting consistently from 15 feet, Smith is better than we thought), we could be lethal.

[gumby]

Well, I disagree with both of you. I think the point Merkin has about Zeus is a good one, and not reflected in stats. Zeus was very good at blocking out. He did not lock up exceptional numbers, but he did not give up any offensive boards easily. Dusan does not box out as well.

I do think PJC is an underrated rebounder, and TJ's equal or superior. Parker is very good at chasing down mid-long bounces.

That's an excellent point about Zeus and should always be noted when talking about his performance - he made the game so much easier for his teammates by boxing out, owning space in the paint and handing them the opportunity to rebound / attack the rim.

All of this. Defense declined as soon as he left. Underappreciated. Like a stellar nose guard who makes it possible for others to ring up the stats.

Basketball's Rob Waldrop.

[Spaceman Spiff]

Well, I disagree with both of you. I think the point Merkin has about Zeus is a good one, and not reflected in stats. Zeus was very good at blocking out. He did not lock up exceptional numbers, but he did not give up any offensive boards easily. Dusan does not box out as well.

I do think PJC is an underrated rebounder, and TJ's equal or superior. Parker is very good at chasing down mid-long bounces.

That's an excellent point about Zeus and should always be noted when talking about his performance - he made the game so much easier for his teammates by boxing out, owning space in the paint and handing them the opportunity to rebound / attack the rim.

All of this. Defense declined as soon as he left. Underappreciated. Like a stellar nose guard who makes it possible for others to ring up the stats.

Basketball's Rob Waldrop.

With Zeus, so much of what he was good at was stuff that doesn't show in box scores. He was an average shot blocker, but exceptional at hedge and recover and position D. The latter two just aren't sexy and don't have their own stats.

Same with boxing out. It doesn't log in the stats, but helps immeasurably. It's sort of funny that Zeus was a top ten recruit because so much of what he brought was meat and potatoes stuff that did a lot for the team without building out a stat line.

It's no coincidence that our D and rebounding peaked when he could make those contributions and let guys like AG, Rondae, Stan and Ashley play looser and go after the ball on the glass and for shotblocking.

[TucsonClip]

The 35% is my proprietary ( ) standard. Reason being, a 50% shooter from 2 is producing 1 point for every shot taken. A 3 point shooter produces 1 point per every shot taken if he makes 33% of his 3's, or 1 of every 3.

So why not 33%? There's an opportunity cost loss by shooting a 3. 2's more consistently draw fouls, which produce extra points and foul trouble for the D. I don't rate that super high, because most people either don't draw a ton of fouls (PJC), blend 3's with a fair number of drives (Zo), or just take a few and let the offense do its work getting the ball inside too.

Pretty good read, and I agree with you on a lot of it. I like to see what people value in a player's game. Im a guy that puts super high marks on REB% and FTr for all positions, with the obvious addition of usage + TS%/eFG%. I dont think thats exactly what you were discussion, but its a major reason (FTr) why I love Trier. FTs increase efficiency, and thats something Trier brings in spades, regardless of what everyone says negatively about him.

[Spaceman Spiff]

The 35% is my proprietary ( ) standard. Reason being, a 50% shooter from 2 is producing 1 point for every shot taken. A 3 point shooter produces 1 point per every shot taken if he makes 33% of his 3's, or 1 of every 3.

So why not 33%? There's an opportunity cost loss by shooting a 3. 2's more consistently draw fouls, which produce extra points and foul trouble for the D. I don't rate that super high, because most people either don't draw a ton of fouls (PJC), blend 3's with a fair number of drives (Zo), or just take a few and let the offense do its work getting the ball inside too.

Pretty good read, and I agree with you on a lot of it. I like to see what people value in a player's game. Im a guy that puts super high marks on REB% and FTr for all positions, with the obvious addition of usage + TS%/eFG%. I dont think thats exactly what you were discussion, but its a major reason (FTr) why I love Trier. FTs increase efficiency, and thats something Trier brings in spades, regardless of what everyone says negatively about him.

It's funny, because I was thinking of Zo when I talked about how the cost of 3's is not necessarily at the expense of drawing fouls. Zo is a great example of someone who does not let threes detract from his ability to get to the rim and draw fouls. Taking 3's does reduce drawing fouls for that possession but it doesn't mean the player isn't excellent at drawing fouls.

[YoDeFoe]

The 35% is my proprietary ( ) standard. Reason being, a 50% shooter from 2 is producing 1 point for every shot taken. A 3 point shooter produces 1 point per every shot taken if he makes 33% of his 3's, or 1 of every 3.

So why not 33%? There's an opportunity cost loss by shooting a 3. 2's more consistently draw fouls, which produce extra points and foul trouble for the D. I don't rate that super high, because most people either don't draw a ton of fouls (PJC), blend 3's with a fair number of drives (Zo), or just take a few and let the offense do its work getting the ball inside too.

Pretty good read, and I agree with you on a lot of it. I like to see what people value in a player's game. Im a guy that puts super high marks on REB% and FTr for all positions, with the obvious addition of usage + TS%/eFG%. I dont think thats exactly what you were discussion, but its a major reason (FTr) why I love Trier. FTs increase efficiency, and thats something Trier brings in spades, regardless of what everyone says negatively about him.

TC what do you make of Trier's rebounding percentages?

One of the best on the team in DReb% but one of the worst we've had in OReb%.

[NYCat]

Here's a some of their last couple of preseason rankings and eventual F4 teams.

2016-2017

http://chrisdortch.info/duke-is-no-1-in ... on-top-25/" target="_blank

• 1 Duke
  2 Oregon
  3 Kansas
  4 Kentucky
  5 Villanova

And the eventual Final Four teams preseason ranking

• North Carolina: 7
  Gonzaga: 14
  Oregon: 2
  South Carolina: unranked

2015 -2016

http://chrisdortch.info/kentucky-again- ... on-top-25/" target="_blank

• 1 Kentucky
  2 Maryland
  3 Virginia
  4 North Carolina
  5 Kansas

Final Four teams

• Villanova: 9
  North Carolina: 4
  Oklahoma: 16
  Syracuse: unranked

2014-2015

http://chrisdortch.info/kentucky-tops-b ... p-25-poll/" target="_blank

• 1. Kentucky
  2. Arizona
  3. Wisconsin
  4. North Carolina
  5. Duke

Final four teams

• Duke: 5
  Wisconsin: 3
  Kentucky: 1
  Michigan State: 20

[Spaceman Spiff]

So, essentially, beinga preseason top 4 team gives you a 25% chance of winding up in the final four.

To discuss Trier's rebounding (yeah, I'm piggybacking) D rebounds are the big indicator for a perimeter player. In most transition schemes, you're probably discouraging at least two people from trying to get offensive rebounds. Being good on the D glass means you're putting in the work and doing what you need to. Being bad on the O glass may just mean your team's scheme tells you that you need to be at half court if a shot goes up.

[TucsonClip]

The 35% is my proprietary ( ) standard. Reason being, a 50% shooter from 2 is producing 1 point for every shot taken. A 3 point shooter produces 1 point per every shot taken if he makes 33% of his 3's, or 1 of every 3.

So why not 33%? There's an opportunity cost loss by shooting a 3. 2's more consistently draw fouls, which produce extra points and foul trouble for the D. I don't rate that super high, because most people either don't draw a ton of fouls (PJC), blend 3's with a fair number of drives (Zo), or just take a few and let the offense do its work getting the ball inside too.

Pretty good read, and I agree with you on a lot of it. I like to see what people value in a player's game. Im a guy that puts super high marks on REB% and FTr for all positions, with the obvious addition of usage + TS%/eFG%. I dont think thats exactly what you were discussion, but its a major reason (FTr) why I love Trier. FTs increase efficiency, and thats something Trier brings in spades, regardless of what everyone says negatively about him.

TC what do you make of Trier's rebounding percentages?

One of the best on the team in DReb% but one of the worst we've had in OReb%.

I think Trier saw he could expand his game and make more of an impact by putting more effort into the defensive boards. I dont expect any guard, and few wings, to put up impressive OREB% numbers. Plus, Trier is our lead guard and someone who is using a majority of our possessions, so I wouldnt expect him to be on the offensive glass. Plus, if he isnt taking the shot, he needs to bust his ass back on defense.

Miller's OREB strategy changes based on his team. No reason we should have been sending guys to the glass for second chance opportunities the last two seasons, and we didnt (if I remember correctly without looking up the stats). However, add Ashley, Tarc, Gordon, Stanley, RHJ, NJ, TJMC to the roster and things change, which we saw.

[HiCat]

Here's a some of their last couple of preseason rankings and eventual F4 teams.

2016-2017

http://chrisdortch.info/duke-is-no-1-in ... on-top-25/" target="_blank

• 1 Duke
  2 Oregon
  3 Kansas
  4 Kentucky
  5 Villanova

And the eventual Final Four teams preseason ranking

• North Carolina: 7
  Gonzaga: 14
  Oregon: 2
  South Carolina: unranked

2015 -2016

http://chrisdortch.info/kentucky-again- ... on-top-25/" target="_blank

• 1 Kentucky
  2 Maryland
  3 Virginia
  4 North Carolina
  5 Kansas

Final Four teams

• Villanova: 9
  North Carolina: 4
  Oklahoma: 16
  Syracuse: unranked

2014-2015

http://chrisdortch.info/kentucky-tops-b ... p-25-poll/" target="_blank

• 1. Kentucky
  2. Arizona
  3. Wisconsin
  4. North Carolina
  5. Duke

Final four teams

• Duke: 5
  Wisconsin: 3
  Kentucky: 1
  Michigan State: 20

Interesting numbers. Making the FF not always the top 1-5 ranked. Then there's the Cinderella team ... more common then I thought.

[Spaceman Spiff]

The 35% is my proprietary ( ) standard. Reason being, a 50% shooter from 2 is producing 1 point for every shot taken. A 3 point shooter produces 1 point per every shot taken if he makes 33% of his 3's, or 1 of every 3.

So why not 33%? There's an opportunity cost loss by shooting a 3. 2's more consistently draw fouls, which produce extra points and foul trouble for the D. I don't rate that super high, because most people either don't draw a ton of fouls (PJC), blend 3's with a fair number of drives (Zo), or just take a few and let the offense do its work getting the ball inside too.

Pretty good read, and I agree with you on a lot of it. I like to see what people value in a player's game. Im a guy that puts super high marks on REB% and FTr for all positions, with the obvious addition of usage + TS%/eFG%. I dont think thats exactly what you were discussion, but its a major reason (FTr) why I love Trier. FTs increase efficiency, and thats something Trier brings in spades, regardless of what everyone says negatively about him.

TC what do you make of Trier's rebounding percentages?

One of the best on the team in DReb% but one of the worst we've had in OReb%.

I think Trier saw he could expand his game and make more of an impact by putting more effort into the defensive boards. I dont expect any guard, and few wings, to put up impressive OREB% numbers. Plus, Trier is our lead guard and someone who is using a majority of our possessions, so I wouldnt expect him to be on the offensive glass. Plus, if he isnt taking the shot, he needs to bust his ass back on defense.

Miller's OREB strategy changes based on his team. No reason we should have been sending guys to the glass for second chance opportunities the last two seasons, and we didnt (if I remember correctly without looking up the stats). However, add Ashley, Tarc, Gordon, Stanley, RHJ, NJ, TJMC to the roster and things change, which we saw.

Great post.

The point on team composition is a good one. One thing guys like TJ/Nick/Rondae/Aaron let you do is attack the offensive boards because you have stellar individual defenders rotating back in transition. I'd rather have an opponent going 2 on 1 vs Aaron Gordon than 2 on 2 vs PJC and Gabe York. Aaron will get that stop.

We had another edge in 13-14 and 14-15 with how our bigs ran. One of the other things Zeus did well that doesn't show in the box is that he ran extraordinarily well. Having that recovery ability in transition just lets you do more because you can count on that raw ability to erase gaps on the back end. It's like how you can gamble a little more on D when you have Olajuwon in the paint.