South Region Discussion

[Beachcat97]

the second weekend is where the better and more dominant teams generally begin to flex their muscle - i expect more of the same this weekend in all the regions.

97, who do you like to come out of the other regions?

[97cats]

97, who do you like to come out of the other regions?

ceiling for the remaining sixteen teams in the NCAA Tournament:

Gonzaga - National Champion
Villanova - ELITE 8
Purdue - ELITE 8
Providence - Sweet 16
Miami - Final Four
Arizona - National Champion
Kansas - National Final
North Carolina - National Champion
Texas Tech - ELITE 8
Duke - ELITE 8
UCLA - Final Four
Houston - National Final
Arkansas - Sweet 16
Michigan - ELITE 8
St Peter's - Sweet 16
Iowa State - ELITE 8

[Beachcat97]

97, who do you like to come out of the other regions?

ceiling for the remaining sixteen teams in the NCAA Tournament:

Gonzaga - National Champion
Villanova - ELITE 8
Purdue - ELITE 8
Providence - Sweet 16
Miami - Final Four
Arizona - National Champion
Kansas - National Final
North Carolina - National Champion
Texas Tech - ELITE 8
Duke - ELITE 8
UCLA - Final Four
Houston - National Final
Arkansas - Sweet 16
Michigan - ELITE 8
St Joseph's - Sweet 16
Iowa State - ELITE 8

UNC to win it all, eh? Wow. Pretty surprising to me that you have the Tar Heels as the third possible national champion, but I'm sure you have your reasons. And I can see you like the UNC/ucla winner to reach the Final Four. Not feeling Purdue, eh?

Note: over the last quarter century, only two teams seeded lower than a 3 have won it all. UConn (7) in '11 and Arizona (4) in '97.

[AZCatGirl]

Totally forgot face stomp was from Houston. Hope we own these guys Thursday.

[Beachcat97]

Totally forgot face stomp was from Houston. Hope we own these guys Thursday.

Oh man. If Chase is in attendance on Thursday, that shit is gonna pump me up.

[RaisingArizona]

97, who do you like to come out of the other regions?

ceiling for the remaining sixteen teams in the NCAA Tournament:


St Joseph's - Sweet 16

Gonna take a lot of blizzards and Phil Martelli whining for that to happen. Maybe the school can call in a Joey Brackets favor.

[wyo-cat]

It’s Saint Peter’s

[RondaeShimmy]

Here's a video from how Sampson has setup Houston from last year, still relevant...

How Houston Scores

Yeah I think they're going to play Tubelis out of the game game because of the post trap, he's going to get stripped constantly.

Ballo I think will be similar. We have to get the bigs inside ball so that they don't have to take much of a step or dribble. Even when it looks like we'll have a clear advantage, they're switching will negate that quickly. Koloko is the only one who's patient and has the post moves to wait for the trap to end because they don't do it permanently.

[97cats]

97, who do you like to come out of the other regions?

ceiling for the remaining sixteen teams in the NCAA Tournament:


St Joseph's - Sweet 16

Gonna take a lot of blizzards and Phil Martelli whining for that to happen. Maybe the school can call in a Joey Brackets favor.

this is very funny well Martelli is in the Sweet 16 in San Antonio this year so maybe he can help me out!

[Alieberman]

97, who do you like to come out of the other regions?

ceiling for the remaining sixteen teams in the NCAA Tournament:

Gonzaga - National Champion
Villanova - ELITE 8
Purdue - ELITE 8
Providence - Sweet 16
Miami - Final Four
Arizona - National Champion
Kansas - National Final
North Carolina - National Champion
Texas Tech - ELITE 8
Duke - ELITE 8
UCLA - Final Four
Houston - National Final
Arkansas - Sweet 16
Michigan - ELITE 8
St Peter's - Sweet 16
Iowa State - ELITE 8

Interesting.

Only things I'd change as far as ceilings:
Kansas- Champs
North Carolina- Final Four
Texas Tech- Finals
Duke- Champs

[RaisingArizona]

I don't see it with Kansas. They'll likely get to the Final Four bc of their gift of a draw (both seeding and upsets) but I just don't think that's all that talented of a roster.

[Alieberman]

I don't see it with Kansas. They'll likely get to the Final Four bc of their gift of a draw (both seeding and upsets) but I just don't think that's all that talented of a roster.

I don't see it either. But with such an easy draw to the Final 4... they have a shot

[Longhorned]

Here's a video from how Sampson has setup Houston from last year, still relevant...

How Houston Scores

Yeah I think they're going to play Tubelis out of the game game because of the post trap, he's going to get stripped constantly.

Ballo I think will be similar. We have to get the bigs inside ball so that they don't have to take much of a step or dribble. Even when it looks like we'll have a clear advantage, they're switching will negate that quickly. Koloko is the only one who's patient and has the post moves to wait for the trap to end because they don't do it permanently.

Against the set defense, I can't picture how we'll get the ball to the bigs in that position. I also don't see how we can play Koloko and Ballo together against Houston.

I'm not saying it won't happen, just that Tommy's (and some of you guys's) basketball imagination exceeds my basketball imagination.

[RaisingArizona]

I can see the post trapping going both ways. We're a bit of a paradox against that particular strategy in that we are both suspect at being strong with the ball and keeping it up high away from smaller players while also being truly elite at both interior passing and cutting without the ball. It wouldn't surprise me if it causes us fits or if we completely roast it and force Houston off of that strategy.

[RondaeShimmy]

Here's a video from how Sampson has setup Houston from last year, still relevant...

How Houston Scores

Yeah I think they're going to play Tubelis out of the game game because of the post trap, he's going to get stripped constantly.

Ballo I think will be similar. We have to get the bigs inside ball so that they don't have to take much of a step or dribble. Even when it looks like we'll have a clear advantage, they're switching will negate that quickly. Koloko is the only one who's patient and has the post moves to wait for the trap to end because they don't do it permanently.

Against the set defense, I can't picture how we'll get the ball to the bigs in that position. I also don't see how we can play Koloko and Ballo together against Houston.

I'm not saying it won't happen, just that Tommy's (and some of you guys's) basketball imagination exceeds my basketball imagination.

We have to pass to the bigs on the short roll like Memphis did in the video. But that requires bigs putting the ball on the floor. Tubelis is the best at it but he can only go left and gets stripped a considerable amount when moving with the ball in traffic.

The team that gave Houston the most trouble this year was Memphis with their big athletic wings. That's how we're going to have to win vs them. Use them to carry Arizona and open up the post.

Mathurin and Terry have to attack the basket relentlessly.

[RondaeShimmy]

[Spaceman Spiff]

Here's a video from how Sampson has setup Houston from last year, still relevant...

How Houston Scores

Yeah I think they're going to play Tubelis out of the game game because of the post trap, he's going to get stripped constantly.

Ballo I think will be similar. We have to get the bigs inside ball so that they don't have to take much of a step or dribble. Even when it looks like we'll have a clear advantage, they're switching will negate that quickly. Koloko is the only one who's patient and has the post moves to wait for the trap to end because they don't do it permanently.

Being honest, I'm not sure heavy post entries should ever be a major plan for us. Tubelis needs to make plays on the move, and even Koloko isn't a pound it in big guy.

I agree job 1 is letting our bigs play off other people. If we have to rely on them to create vs a set defense, it'll be rough. I'd focus on trying to get Koloko in a lot of rim running actions off the pick and roll. Houston doesn't have a ton of length sp they'll have to honor that.

[RaisingArizona]

If only we had athletic wings. Oh wait ...

[Olsondogg]

Love, love love being the underdog in this game.

“Kerr Kriisa could have like 17 turnovers this game” —Rob Dauster

Love love love.

[RondaeShimmy]

If only we had athletic wings. Oh wait ...

Who don't need to fall in love with chucking 3s

[CalStateTempe]

Listening to a ton of basketball podcasts to and from work from “the experts” I’ve realized none of them watch arizona basketball outside of curated clips.

It’s maddening

[Spaceman Spiff]

If only we had athletic wings. Oh wait ...

Who don't need to fall in love with chucking 3s

That's important, especially if they aren't going down. We have the length and athleticism to make plays going to the rim, so that needs to be option 1 every time.

3's should come more off penetration and kick on in rhythm in transition.

[Beachcat97]

I was gonna ask about Houston's three point shooting, but then quickly remembered that it doesn't matter: they will shoot their highest 3FG% of the season on Thursday. Even TCU was pretty hot from three in the first half, and they are NOT a good three point shooting team.

[EVCat]

Thanks, that makes sense. Just trying to put some context to the the stats. I do worry about our turnover tendencies with a team like Houston though. But agree that if we play to our potential we will be fine.

youre more than welcome - in this game Arizona turnovers committed and offensive rebounds for Houston allowed will tell the tale of this game

also super important with this team are the type of turnovers. If we turn the ball over trying to lob high/low, or over the top of the D in the half court, that doesn't bug me. Even the tightest angle pass is about 60-70% conversion rate, going to a position where, if controlled, the conversion rate is very high. So a turnover every 3rd or 4th lob to entry (not lob to alley oop...missing those is much more problematic) is still getting a high conversion rate.

But more importantly, those turnovers are usually tipped around and lost after a small scramble, and are under the basket. So we don't get run out on. The turnovers on the perimeter, or missed lobs to dunk, or stripped drives...those lead to advantage breaks the other way, and are killer. There have been games where we have run up a pretty high TO number, but with continuing to hammer the high/low and having a few go bad really inflating that number. Those, I mentally consider to be like missed shots, because CK is going to dunk or lay in the easy 2 if the ball gets to him, and the turnover is controlled close to the rim and without momentum going the other way, like a normal steal.

[prh]

I was gonna ask about Houston's three point shooting, but then quickly remembered that it doesn't matter: they will shoot their highest 3FG% of the season on Thursday. Even TCU was pretty hot from three in the first half, and they are NOT a good three point shooting team.

If they do shoot well from 3, that will dramatically cut down their offensive rebounding, so I don't think it's as much an overall boost to them as it is for most teams. Their offensive rebounding is from longer rebounds off mid-long range misses, of which there are a LOT. They don't rebound like us (ie. very heavy around the rim).

[Alieberman]

I'm feeling oddly calm about this game right now.

Bet that changes by Thursday...

[Catintheheat]

I was gonna ask about Houston's three point shooting, but then quickly remembered that it doesn't matter: they will shoot their highest 3FG% of the season on Thursday. Even TCU was pretty hot from three in the first half, and they are NOT a good three point shooting team.

Of course the Cats will get Houston’s best shot. I guess that is flattering considering everting looks forward to playing Arizona. In many cases it is their Super Bowl.

[UAEebs86]

We've already had the 3 and 4 knocked out for us, and a coin flip's chance we'll face an 11 in the Elite 8.

Yet the hand wringing continues. Do we what do.

[RondaeShimmy]

I was gonna ask about Houston's three point shooting, but then quickly remembered that it doesn't matter: they will shoot their highest 3FG% of the season on Thursday. Even TCU was pretty hot from three in the first half, and they are NOT a good three point shooting team.

They ended up shooting like 23% compared to our 18%

[Beachcat97]

Okay, I've read all the pregame analysis I'm going to have time for before Thursday. It's prediction time. Would like to see some others.

AZ 70
Houston 65

BTFD!

[97cats]

this is exactly what AZ wants - everyone telling them they will lose

perfect thank you everyone i will carry that message with me loud and proud...AZ has no shot in San Antonio

[UAEebs86]

this is exactly what AZ wants - everyone telling them they will lose

perfect thank you everyone i will carry that message with me loud and proud...AZ has no shot in San Antonio

zero chance

[azcat49]

And don’t forget to start an overrated chant at just the right time to motivate Mathurin.

Cats 83-68 Thursday night

[RaisingArizona]

this is exactly what AZ wants - everyone telling them they will lose

perfect thank you everyone i will carry that message with me loud and proud...AZ has no shot in San Antonio

Clearly we've lucked into 33 victories

[RondaeShimmy]

All of these are from shot quality

https://twitter.com/Shot_Quality





Interesting here, our defensive efficiency has fallen 10-12 spots on bayesian, kenpom, Bart torvik etc but we are still holding opponents to bad shots (tcu shot 35%)

[RaisingArizona]

Love, love love being the underdog in this game.

“Kerr Kriisa could have like 17 turnovers this game” —Rob Dauster

Love love love.

Rob Dauster: "Kerr Kriisa was the best player on TCU."

Narrator: Arizona was +27 with Kerr Kriisa on the floor

[Longhorned]

I was gonna ask about Houston's three point shooting, but then quickly remembered that it doesn't matter: they will shoot their highest 3FG% of the season on Thursday. Even TCU was pretty hot from three in the first half, and they are NOT a good three point shooting team.

If they do shoot well from 3, that will dramatically cut down their offensive rebounding, so I don't think it's as much an overall boost to them as it is for most teams. Their offensive rebounding is from longer rebounds off mid-long range misses, of which there are a LOT. They don't rebound like us (ie. very heavy around the rim).

This is the thing that gets me. Their shot selection makes for long rebounds. The defense is basically out of position for those. How do you counter? Just sheer effort by our guards and wings?

[prh]

We are universal 1.5 point favorite. Bookmakers backing up what we are saying

[prh]

I was gonna ask about Houston's three point shooting, but then quickly remembered that it doesn't matter: they will shoot their highest 3FG% of the season on Thursday. Even TCU was pretty hot from three in the first half, and they are NOT a good three point shooting team.

If they do shoot well from 3, that will dramatically cut down their offensive rebounding, so I don't think it's as much an overall boost to them as it is for most teams. Their offensive rebounding is from longer rebounds off mid-long range misses, of which there are a LOT. They don't rebound like us (ie. very heavy around the rim).

This is the thing that gets me. Their shot selection makes for long rebounds. The defense is basically out of position for those. How do you counter? Just sheer effort by our guards and wings?

All effort and focus. There's a couple factors. One is our desire to leak out for transition buckets. I think trading that leak out for staying home is absolutely worth it. Secondly, can't have our perimeter guys creep/collapse to the rim when the shot is up. Guards and wings gotta move backwards, away from the rim and put a body on someone.

[Longhorned]

I was gonna ask about Houston's three point shooting, but then quickly remembered that it doesn't matter: they will shoot their highest 3FG% of the season on Thursday. Even TCU was pretty hot from three in the first half, and they are NOT a good three point shooting team.

If they do shoot well from 3, that will dramatically cut down their offensive rebounding, so I don't think it's as much an overall boost to them as it is for most teams. Their offensive rebounding is from longer rebounds off mid-long range misses, of which there are a LOT. They don't rebound like us (ie. very heavy around the rim).

This is the thing that gets me. Their shot selection makes for long rebounds. The defense is basically out of position for those. How do you counter? Just sheer effort by our guards and wings?

All effort and focus. There's a couple factors. One is our desire to leak out for transition buckets. I think trading that leak out for staying home is absolutely worth it. Secondly, can't have our perimeter guys creep/collapse to the rim when the shot is up. Guards and wings gotta move backwards, away from the rim and put a body on someone.

It really is interesting. Our defense has been giving up long rebounds all season, but it's been worth it on balance. Now we're facing a team that both makes a living off long offensive rebounds and can defend in transition. So, the calculus changes to accepting a slower pace that, on paper, favors Houston, but in reality speeds Houston up because they're giving up all those refreshed shot clocks if we can grab the defensive boards at the expense of getting out on the run.

[RondaeShimmy]

Our constant defensive switching just puts us in bad rebounding situations sometimes.

[Beachcat97]

And don’t forget to start an overrated chant at just the right time to motivate Mathurin.

Cats 83-68 Thursday night

I was gonna pick our score in the 80s, but Houston's opponents only score 60ppg! I do think we'll impose our style of play and make them uncomfortable, but I think overall the game will be slightly lower scoring. If we put up 83 on these chumps, I agree: it won't be that close.

[IndianaZonaFan]

79-70 Cats.

Also good point by RS. We switch a lot. It will be interesting to see if we switch less often against this team in order to get a body on everyone.

Also, if they are so busy offensive rebounding, we should be able to run it on them when we grab the boards on D.

[CatFanOneMil]

Well think about it from Houstons POV, how do you stop Arizona?
Do you pack in the paint and force a lot of turnovers?
Do you double Benn AND C-lo...that leaves three guys open...
If you double up on C-Lo do you live with three pointers?

I think they will try to force us into three pointers because our last game numbers there were not good...

So we know they are going to pack in the paint and not allow penetration...the problem is we pass off to the bigs there pretty well or dish out to an open three.

If Pelle and Krissa and Terry are hitting threes its a route...if the threes are not falling we probably win the rebound battle because its a long bounce...

I just don't see what options Houston has that we have not already dealt with this season.

[Longhorned]

79-70 Cats.

Also good point by RS. We switch a lot. It will be interesting to see if we switch less often against this team in order to get a body on everyone.

Also, if they are so busy offensive rebounding, we should be able to run it on them when we grab the boards on D.

Or, when defending so many jump shots: If you're out of position from switching, does it finally work in your favor to be a tall guy away from the basket who can tip or grab so many long rebounds?

[Beachcat97]

If Pelle and Krissa and Terry are hitting threes its a route...if the threes are not falling we probably win the rebound battle because its a long bounce...

I just don't see what options Houston has that we have not already dealt with this season.

Given what happened in the last game, I HAVE to think Larsson and Kriisa are going to shoot better on Thursday. These guys have been huge for us all season, and I imagine they're both eager to splash some threes this week.

I expect a better game from Tubelis too.

[CatFanOneMil]

If Pelle and Krissa and Terry are hitting threes its a route...if the threes are not falling we probably win the rebound battle because its a long bounce...

I just don't see what options Houston has that we have not already dealt with this season.

Given what happened in the last game, I HAVE to think Larsson and Kriisa are going to shoot better on Thursday. These guys have been huge for us all season, and I imagine they're both eager to splash some threes this week.

I expect a better game from Tubelis too.

I agree, Tubelis may actually be the X-factor here...not on Houstons radar, and the other guys its a matter of the averages catching up...

I am convinced Tommy Lloyd knows what he is doing, and he knows it based on evidence he has seen, he's telling the guys to take the threes...there's a reason.

[RaisingArizona]

Plus when Tubelis gets on a roll offensively it's something else. That guy can put up 15-20 points in a blink of an eye.

[SabinoDrifter]

Love, love love being the underdog in this game.

“Kerr Kriisa could have like 17 turnovers this game” —Rob Dauster

Love love love.

Rob Dauster: "Kerr Kriisa was the best player on TCU."

Narrator: Arizona was +27 with Kerr Kriisa on the floor

Rob's colleague Jeff Goodman had Illinois in the Final Four.

[EastCoastCat]

Our constant defensive switching just puts us in bad rebounding situations sometimes.

That and the tendency to leak out on a fast break plays into it too.

I'm sure the Aw Shucks Genius Assassin is in his laboratory cooking up something before Thursday.