A co-op community for Arizona Fans
http://www.beardownwildcats.com/
I think this is spot on about good offense beating good defense once we get to this level. The metrics bear this out, and more anecdotally, we can probably all think of times we lost in the tourney to a team that couldn’t miss. Sean Miller had some of the best defenses in the country while at AZ, and it didn’t make a difference against hot-shooting Wisconsin, Wichita St or Buffalo.Winger wrote: ↑Thu Mar 28, 2024 9:53 amarizonawildcats wrote: ↑Mon Mar 25, 2024 4:31 pmThe graphic has nothing to do with efficiency. I think people focus on tempo because half-court offense and defense is so important in the tourney. You have to go back to the 2009 Tar Heels for a champion with KenPom top 10 tempo.Winger wrote: ↑Mon Mar 25, 2024 3:31 pmI like them too but I struggle with why folks still use overall tempo or pace as any kind of marker for playing well/efficient.CalStateTempe wrote: ↑Mon Mar 25, 2024 2:00 pm
Great call out.
I like these graphics but I think the author struggles with correlation vs causation
If you have a good defense your tempo is going to be slower.
If you have a poor defense your tempo is going to be faster.
Having a good offense is independent of tempo.
Having a poor offense is independent of tempo.
Not sure I’d be using NET either but whatever.
Once you understand the correlation, or not, of average possession length with defense, or not for offense the game starts to make more sense imo.
I think there is something to his graphics above but they are highly skewed by what is above.
If you want to see examples that will connect with your mind just bring up Sean Miller’s career KenPom page and look at the quality of his offenses and offensive APL and quality of his defenses (and 2FG% defense) and defensive APL and the clouds will part.
You can do the same to see examples of how you “cant defend 3FG shooting”.
The UNC thing is true (I assume it is) because: teams that win the Natty have good = slow defenses, which slows their overall “tempo”.
Focusing on overall tempo is erroneous.
If you broke out an offensive metric and wanted to look at average possession length while on offense you might be on to something. You could try to make the case for “to succeed in the NCAA tournament you have to play both well and slow while on offense”.
There is no need to do that for defense because almost all very good defenses are also “very slow”. Again, defensive efficiency is directly related to possession length. In that regard defensive “tempo” doesn’t mean anything. Because: you essentially can’t be a good defense without being “slow”.
The same does not hold for offense. If you look at that chart and find the teams with the highest overall tempos what you’ll have is a cohort of (relatively) poor defenses and fast offenses. If you look at the cohort of teams with the slowest tempo you’ll have a cohort of very good defenses and slower offenses.
Combine the 2 sides of the floor into one pace or tempo and you lose the forest through the trees.
Also, when it comes to high level NCAA tournament success — making Final Fours and winning Natties — good offense is slightly more important than good defense. Good defenses lose to good offenses at that level more often than the opposite. Not sure how the changes in the charge rule will affect this.
Can't let their bigs get going. And our bigs have to avoid foul trouble.CalStateTempe wrote: ↑Thu Mar 28, 2024 12:23 pm Those ghosts of whisky, Wichita State, Buffalo, Xavier, are hitting hard today.
The closest game time we get, the more nervous I feel
We're not adding Clemson to that list.CalStateTempe wrote: ↑Thu Mar 28, 2024 12:23 pm Those ghosts of whisky, Wichita State, Buffalo, Xavier, are hitting hard today.
The closest game time we get, the more nervous I feel
Who was that football player that literally threw up right before a bowl game and kept playing? It was just a few years ago.
Guards, Steve Kerr, Mike Bobby, Jason Terry, Khalid Reeves, Damon Stoudimire, Gilbert Arenas,Beachcat97 wrote: ↑Thu Mar 28, 2024 6:31 pm There was clearly something off with the team's mental preparation, readiness and resilience today.
The team I just watched lose to Clemson -- fucking CLEMSON! -- is not the same team I saw win game after game after game this year, against much teams than Clemson. Not to take anything away from Clemson. They deserved to win. They controlled the game from start to finish and took full advantage of our deer-in-headlights team.
The more times we lose in the tourney, when we're favored, the more I look back at our teams that reached the Final Four and wonder, what was different? I can't put my finger on it.
With the exception of TJ, UA had not been point guard U once Lute signed Mustafa Shakur.84Cat wrote: ↑Thu Mar 28, 2024 6:34 pmGuards, Steve Kerr, Mike Bobby, Jason Terry, Khalid Reeves, Damon StoudimireBeachcat97 wrote: ↑Thu Mar 28, 2024 6:31 pm There was clearly something off with the team's mental preparation, readiness and resilience today.
The team I just watched lose to Clemson -- fucking CLEMSON! -- is not the same team I saw win game after game after game this year, against much teams than Clemson. Not to take anything away from Clemson. They deserved to win. They controlled the game from start to finish and took full advantage of our deer-in-headlights team.
The more times we lose in the tourney, when we're favored, the more I look back at our teams that reached the Final Four and wonder, what was different? I can't put my finger on it.
I hear you, and yes, those are all special players. But was Khalid Reeves really all that better than, say, Jason Gardner or Nick Johnson or Benedict Mathurin? This group of great guards who got to the FF benefited from playing on very good teams who played well through March. It's the "through March" part that has proven so elusive for Arizona basketball over the past 20 years. Across different coaching eras, different hoops eras and different kinds of rosters, Arizona has consistently underperformed in the NCAA tournament, with few exceptions.84Cat wrote: ↑Thu Mar 28, 2024 6:34 pmGuards, Steve Kerr, Mike Bobby, Jason Terry, Khalid Reeves, Damon Stoudimire, Gilbert Arenas,Beachcat97 wrote: ↑Thu Mar 28, 2024 6:31 pm There was clearly something off with the team's mental preparation, readiness and resilience today.
The team I just watched lose to Clemson -- fucking CLEMSON! -- is not the same team I saw win game after game after game this year, against much teams than Clemson. Not to take anything away from Clemson. They deserved to win. They controlled the game from start to finish and took full advantage of our deer-in-headlights team.
The more times we lose in the tourney, when we're favored, the more I look back at our teams that reached the Final Four and wonder, what was different? I can't put my finger on it.
This is it!!84Cat wrote: ↑Thu Mar 28, 2024 6:34 pmGuards, Steve Kerr, Mike Bobby, Jason Terry, Khalid Reeves, Damon Stoudimire, Gilbert Arenas,Beachcat97 wrote: ↑Thu Mar 28, 2024 6:31 pm There was clearly something off with the team's mental preparation, readiness and resilience today.
The team I just watched lose to Clemson -- fucking CLEMSON! -- is not the same team I saw win game after game after game this year, against much teams than Clemson. Not to take anything away from Clemson. They deserved to win. They controlled the game from start to finish and took full advantage of our deer-in-headlights team.
The more times we lose in the tourney, when we're favored, the more I look back at our teams that reached the Final Four and wonder, what was different? I can't put my finger on it.
Bayless was pretty goodMerkin wrote: ↑Thu Mar 28, 2024 6:37 pmWith the exception of TJ, UA had not been point guard U once Lute signed Mustafa Shakur.84Cat wrote: ↑Thu Mar 28, 2024 6:34 pmGuards, Steve Kerr, Mike Bobby, Jason Terry, Khalid Reeves, Damon StoudimireBeachcat97 wrote: ↑Thu Mar 28, 2024 6:31 pm There was clearly something off with the team's mental preparation, readiness and resilience today.
The team I just watched lose to Clemson -- fucking CLEMSON! -- is not the same team I saw win game after game after game this year, against much teams than Clemson. Not to take anything away from Clemson. They deserved to win. They controlled the game from start to finish and took full advantage of our deer-in-headlights team.
The more times we lose in the tourney, when we're favored, the more I look back at our teams that reached the Final Four and wonder, what was different? I can't put my finger on it.
Khalid was an absolute stud in college. He could and did carry the team many games his senior yearBeachcat97 wrote: ↑Thu Mar 28, 2024 6:43 pmI hear you, and yes, those are all special players. But was Khalid Reeves really all that better than, say, Jason Gardner or Nick Johnson or Benedict Mathurin? This group of great guards who got to the FF benefited from playing on very good teams who played well through March. It's the "through March" part that has proven so elusive for Arizona basketball over the past 20 years. Across different coaching eras, different hoops eras and different kinds of rosters, Arizona has consistently underperformed in the NCAA tournament, with few exceptions.84Cat wrote: ↑Thu Mar 28, 2024 6:34 pmGuards, Steve Kerr, Mike Bobby, Jason Terry, Khalid Reeves, Damon Stoudimire, Gilbert Arenas,Beachcat97 wrote: ↑Thu Mar 28, 2024 6:31 pm There was clearly something off with the team's mental preparation, readiness and resilience today.
The team I just watched lose to Clemson -- fucking CLEMSON! -- is not the same team I saw win game after game after game this year, against much teams than Clemson. Not to take anything away from Clemson. They deserved to win. They controlled the game from start to finish and took full advantage of our deer-in-headlights team.
The more times we lose in the tourney, when we're favored, the more I look back at our teams that reached the Final Four and wonder, what was different? I can't put my finger on it.
We've been missing the PG who can do that - there have been a few games this year that Boz showed it - and Bradley has shown it in the tournament - unfortunately he didn't get a chance to start and impact from the beginning (which is understandable based on entire season of lineup)84Cat wrote: ↑Thu Mar 28, 2024 6:49 pmKhalid was an absolute stud in college. He could and did carry the team many games his senior yearBeachcat97 wrote: ↑Thu Mar 28, 2024 6:43 pmI hear you, and yes, those are all special players. But was Khalid Reeves really all that better than, say, Jason Gardner or Nick Johnson or Benedict Mathurin? This group of great guards who got to the FF benefited from playing on very good teams who played well through March. It's the "through March" part that has proven so elusive for Arizona basketball over the past 20 years. Across different coaching eras, different hoops eras and different kinds of rosters, Arizona has consistently underperformed in the NCAA tournament, with few exceptions.84Cat wrote: ↑Thu Mar 28, 2024 6:34 pmGuards, Steve Kerr, Mike Bobby, Jason Terry, Khalid Reeves, Damon Stoudimire, Gilbert Arenas,Beachcat97 wrote: ↑Thu Mar 28, 2024 6:31 pm There was clearly something off with the team's mental preparation, readiness and resilience today.
The team I just watched lose to Clemson -- fucking CLEMSON! -- is not the same team I saw win game after game after game this year, against much teams than Clemson. Not to take anything away from Clemson. They deserved to win. They controlled the game from start to finish and took full advantage of our deer-in-headlights team.
The more times we lose in the tourney, when we're favored, the more I look back at our teams that reached the Final Four and wonder, what was different? I can't put my finger on it.
The old Goazcats board used to say that team was 4 NBA players and and a slow white point guard from Duquesne with alligator arms. TJ sure showed us.
josiah turner broke our heartsMerkin wrote: ↑Thu Mar 28, 2024 6:37 pmWith the exception of TJ, UA had not been point guard U once Lute signed Mustafa Shakur.84Cat wrote: ↑Thu Mar 28, 2024 6:34 pmGuards, Steve Kerr, Mike Bobby, Jason Terry, Khalid Reeves, Damon StoudimireBeachcat97 wrote: ↑Thu Mar 28, 2024 6:31 pm There was clearly something off with the team's mental preparation, readiness and resilience today.
The team I just watched lose to Clemson -- fucking CLEMSON! -- is not the same team I saw win game after game after game this year, against much teams than Clemson. Not to take anything away from Clemson. They deserved to win. They controlled the game from start to finish and took full advantage of our deer-in-headlights team.
The more times we lose in the tourney, when we're favored, the more I look back at our teams that reached the Final Four and wonder, what was different? I can't put my finger on it.
haha yes, I remember the posts back then!
I understand where you are coming from, but the 2014 team... if BA hadn't went down we were untouchable - and still almost made the FFBeachcat97 wrote: ↑Thu Mar 28, 2024 7:05 pm So the point I'd make about TJ is that even with him as our PG, surrounded by future NBA players, we still couldn't get to the FF.
One tough loss against Wisconsin in OT, followed by another loss to the Badgers in a game that wasn't as close as the final score suggests.
Even with one of the best PGs in the country on our team, we come up short.
So while I'm definitely in the "let's get a better PG!" camp, I'm not sure that's the difference between getting to the FF and not.
Also, what we thought were future NBA players were not. TJ has more NBA minutes than all the other players from his two years combined.Beachcat97 wrote: ↑Thu Mar 28, 2024 7:05 pm So the point I'd make about TJ is that even with him as our PG, surrounded by future NBA players, we still couldn't get to the FF.
Yeah we are.Beachcat97 wrote: ↑Thu Mar 28, 2024 2:40 pmWe're not adding Clemson to that list.CalStateTempe wrote: ↑Thu Mar 28, 2024 12:23 pm Those ghosts of whisky, Wichita State, Buffalo, Xavier, are hitting hard today.
The closest game time we get, the more nervous I feel
I’ll go to my grave thinking we cut nets that year if not for that game against cal.MrKyle wrote: ↑Thu Mar 28, 2024 7:13 pmI understand where you are coming from, but the 2014 team... if BA hadn't went down we were untouchable - and still almost made the FFBeachcat97 wrote: ↑Thu Mar 28, 2024 7:05 pm So the point I'd make about TJ is that even with him as our PG, surrounded by future NBA players, we still couldn't get to the FF.
One tough loss against Wisconsin in OT, followed by another loss to the Badgers in a game that wasn't as close as the final score suggests.
Even with one of the best PGs in the country on our team, we come up short.
So while I'm definitely in the "let's get a better PG!" camp, I'm not sure that's the difference between getting to the FF and not.
This is a good point... But I think everyone needs to take a step back and think about what our prospects were going into this year. Top 20 team with some interesting transfers/freshman who could potentially make some noise. The contending team was targeted for 2024 with our first crop of really high tier recruits in CTL era (bryant/phillips/emmanuel) etc.1stNGrant Frys wrote: ↑Thu Mar 28, 2024 7:52 pm S16, regular season conference champs, a draft pick or two. The realistic hope of a contending team NEXT year.
the sad thing is it, we're so used to it. That it all feels weirdly comfortable, like a once nice pair of jeans.
No doubt in my mind either - that team was just about perfect with the size/ability and teamwork across the board. I'll never forgot that Cal game... sitting in a buffalo wild wings in Newark,CA on a business trip watching the game and literally spit out my beer when BA went down and it was clear he was seriously hurt.CalStateTempe wrote: ↑Thu Mar 28, 2024 8:10 pmI’ll go to my grave thinking we cut nets that year if not for that game against cal.MrKyle wrote: ↑Thu Mar 28, 2024 7:13 pmI understand where you are coming from, but the 2014 team... if BA hadn't went down we were untouchable - and still almost made the FFBeachcat97 wrote: ↑Thu Mar 28, 2024 7:05 pm So the point I'd make about TJ is that even with him as our PG, surrounded by future NBA players, we still couldn't get to the FF.
One tough loss against Wisconsin in OT, followed by another loss to the Badgers in a game that wasn't as close as the final score suggests.
Even with one of the best PGs in the country on our team, we come up short.
So while I'm definitely in the "let's get a better PG!" camp, I'm not sure that's the difference between getting to the FF and not.