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So you'd prefer to play far from home against teams that look weaker on paper.gronk4heisman wrote: Fri Jan 21, 2022 2:14 pm I disagree and think the region we are in is much less important than the draw we get.
Yup. It’s always about the draw and less about region or seed.gronk4heisman wrote: Fri Jan 21, 2022 2:14 pm I disagree and think the region we are in is much less important than the draw we get.
Absolutely, I would rather play a #2 like Providence as a one seed in the east in Philly over playing Gonzaga as a 2 seed in the west in San Fran.Beachcat97 wrote: Fri Jan 21, 2022 2:16 pmSo you'd prefer to play far from home against teams that look weaker on paper.gronk4heisman wrote: Fri Jan 21, 2022 2:14 pm I disagree and think the region we are in is much less important than the draw we get.
Ain't no way Gonzaga will be a 2, unless something very surprising happens. But I hear you. The 2 seed pool is looking more like this: Purdue, Duke, Kansas, Wisconsin, the loser of next week's AZ/UCLA game, Nova, maybe Houston. Providence is looking more like a 4 or 5 at the moment.gronk4heisman wrote: Fri Jan 21, 2022 2:22 pmAbsolutely, I would rather play a #2 like Providence as a one seed in the east in Philly over playing Gonzaga as a 2 seed in the west in San Fran.Beachcat97 wrote: Fri Jan 21, 2022 2:16 pmSo you'd prefer to play far from home against teams that look weaker on paper.gronk4heisman wrote: Fri Jan 21, 2022 2:14 pm I disagree and think the region we are in is much less important than the draw we get.
I was saying I would rather be a 1 in the east then a 2 in the West avoiding Gonzaga in the West final if it came down to that.Beachcat97 wrote: Fri Jan 21, 2022 2:26 pmAin't no way Gonzaga will be a 2, unless something very surprising happens. But I hear you. The 2 seed pool is looking more like this: Purdue, Duke, Kansas, Wisconsin, the loser of next week's AZ/UCLA game, Nova, maybe Houston. Providence is looking more like a 4 or 5 at the moment.gronk4heisman wrote: Fri Jan 21, 2022 2:22 pmAbsolutely, I would rather play a #2 like Providence as a one seed in the east in Philly over playing Gonzaga as a 2 seed in the west in San Fran.Beachcat97 wrote: Fri Jan 21, 2022 2:16 pmSo you'd prefer to play far from home against teams that look weaker on paper.gronk4heisman wrote: Fri Jan 21, 2022 2:14 pm I disagree and think the region we are in is much less important than the draw we get.
Didn't know that. Noted.97cats wrote: Fri Jan 21, 2022 2:59 pm there is an overriding advantage statistically to reaching the final four as a one seed - always take the #1 seed.
If you're below a 5 seed.97cats wrote: Fri Jan 21, 2022 3:06 pm historically
40.7% chance to make the final four as a #1 seed
20.7% chance to make the final four as a #2 seed
12.1% chance to make the final four as a #3 seed
9.3% chance to make the final four as a #4 seed
5% chance to make the final four as a #5 seed
2.1% chance to make the final four as a #6 seed
2.1% chance to make the final four as a #7 seed
3.6% chance to make the final four as a #8 seed
0.7% chance to make the final four as a #9 seed
0.7% chance to make the final four as a #10 seed
2.9% chance to make the final four as a #11 seed
0.0% chance to make the final four as a #12 seed
0.0% chance to make the final four as a #13 seed
0.0% chance to make the final four as a #14 seed
0.0% chance to make the final four as a #15 seed
0.0% chance to make the final four as a #16 seed
g32knights wrote: Sat Jan 22, 2022 7:11 am I really hope the Cats get a #1 seed with Wisconsin as the #2. There's no way the Cats lose to Wisconsin in the Elite 8!
Curb your tongue, knave!g32knights wrote: Sat Jan 22, 2022 7:11 am I really hope the Cats get a #1 seed with Wisconsin as the #2. There's no way the Cats lose to Wisconsin in the Elite 8!
Too soon.g32knights wrote: Sat Jan 22, 2022 7:11 am I really hope the Cats get a #1 seed with Wisconsin as the #2. There's no way the Cats lose to Wisconsin in the Elite 8!
Sir.g32knights wrote: Sat Jan 22, 2022 7:11 am I really hope the Cats get a #1 seed with Wisconsin as the #2. There's no way the Cats lose to Wisconsin in the Elite 8!
Absolutely, but even if it doesn't happen, still a big chance to be #1 seed. We get UCLA, USC, and Oregon at our place. Win those three, and we're a #1, regardless of what happens tonight.g32knights wrote: Tue Jan 25, 2022 7:47 am https://www.teamrankings.com/ncaa-tourn ... cketology/
Well, Team Rankings now has us as the overall #1. A win tonight goes a long way in making that happen.
When UCLA went to three straight final fours they never left California in two of them and the third one was Ca. and then had a game in PHX. The west region has not been kind to us especially Anaheim but like the fact that our biological clocks are the same. Dont forget if you travel East you make be playing a game at 8-9 Tucson time in the early rounds.Olsondogg wrote: Fri Jan 21, 2022 2:16 pmYup. It’s always about the draw and less about region or seed.gronk4heisman wrote: Fri Jan 21, 2022 2:14 pm I disagree and think the region we are in is much less important than the draw we get.
Understood but it matters who else is in your region and where they are from.TheCat wrote: Tue Jan 25, 2022 4:13 pmWhen UCLA went to three straight final fours they never left California in two of them and the third one was Ca. and then had a game in PHX. The west region has not been kind to us especially Anaheim but like the fact that our biological clocks are the same. Dont forget if you travel East you make be playing a game at 8-9 Tucson time in the early rounds.Olsondogg wrote: Fri Jan 21, 2022 2:16 pmYup. It’s always about the draw and less about region or seed.gronk4heisman wrote: Fri Jan 21, 2022 2:14 pm I disagree and think the region we are in is much less important than the draw we get.
Can't look at it in a vacuum. Depends what others on the #1 seed line do.Beachcat97 wrote: Fri Jan 28, 2022 9:06 am If we beat ucla next week, still on track for a #1. Lose that one, and I think a 2 becomes our new ceiling.
Of course. Just meant if we put up two losses against the 1st place team in our own league, our argument for a #1 seed gets much weaker. We're currently hanging our hats on a road win vs. Illinois. It's a good win, for sure, but I think we'll need to show the committee something more to actually get a #1. USC is sinking fast, Oregon is up and down...UCLA is increasingly our only chance for a quality win.EastCoastCat wrote: Fri Jan 28, 2022 9:40 amCan't look at it in a vacuum. Depends what others on the #1 seed line do.Beachcat97 wrote: Fri Jan 28, 2022 9:06 am If we beat ucla next week, still on track for a #1. Lose that one, and I think a 2 becomes our new ceiling.
Lots of Basketball still to play...
I think the only way we end up a 4 seed (or lower) is by losing Thursday, plus two more reg season losses.
This dude clearly expects us to lose this week.
Quit obsessing over this. We are like one or two games past the midpoint of the season. Just relax. If anyone proved seating doesn't matter it was the PAC-12 last year.Beachcat97 wrote: Tue Feb 01, 2022 9:37 am https://www.espn.com/espn/feature/story ... -men-field
Falling to a 3 seed in this projection probably has more to do with other teams winning big games and us kind of idling. Struggling to put ASU away (at McKale no less) this past weekend may've weakened our seed position, however slightly. Our NET ranking has fallen a little too.
A loss on Thursday means a #1 seed is out of the question. A win keeps us in the mix for a 1 or 2.
Oh I'm just continuing to respond to 97's point upthread about higher seeding being correlated with deeper tourney runs.TheCat wrote: Wed Feb 02, 2022 1:18 pmQuit obsessing over this. We are like one or two games past the midpoint of the season. Just relax. If anyone proved seating doesn't matter it was the PAC-12 last year.Beachcat97 wrote: Tue Feb 01, 2022 9:37 am https://www.espn.com/espn/feature/story ... -men-field
Falling to a 3 seed in this projection probably has more to do with other teams winning big games and us kind of idling. Struggling to put ASU away (at McKale no less) this past weekend may've weakened our seed position, however slightly. Our NET ranking has fallen a little too.
A loss on Thursday means a #1 seed is out of the question. A win keeps us in the mix for a 1 or 2.
It's fair, but there's a certain unknown. I don't think 3 losses takes us out of a 1 seed discussion, if only because you never know what other teams will do.Beachcat97 wrote: Wed Feb 02, 2022 1:24 pmOh I'm just continuing to respond to 97's point upthread about higher seeding being correlated with deeper tourney runs.TheCat wrote: Wed Feb 02, 2022 1:18 pmQuit obsessing over this. We are like one or two games past the midpoint of the season. Just relax. If anyone proved seating doesn't matter it was the PAC-12 last year.Beachcat97 wrote: Tue Feb 01, 2022 9:37 am https://www.espn.com/espn/feature/story ... -men-field
Falling to a 3 seed in this projection probably has more to do with other teams winning big games and us kind of idling. Struggling to put ASU away (at McKale no less) this past weekend may've weakened our seed position, however slightly. Our NET ranking has fallen a little too.
A loss on Thursday means a #1 seed is out of the question. A win keeps us in the mix for a 1 or 2.
Only when the team we're trying to edge out is ucla.Spaceman Spiff wrote: Wed Feb 02, 2022 1:35 pm it's not crazy to think a 3 loss Arizona team (potentially with all 3 losses being top 25/10 teams) could edge out competition with 3 or 4 losses.
This just shows you what a joke these polls are. They have Kansas as the top #2 seed and Kentucky who beat them head to head by a ton the 4th number 2 seed? Wisc has a 3 seed but the team that took them to the woodshed (Illinois) as a 5 seed? I am predicting that Baylor will not be a 1 seed come selection Sunday.