Bear Down Wildcats

Posted: **Mon Dec 20, 2021 10:58 am**

This conversation seemed very relevant for this topic.

Posted: **Mon Dec 20, 2021 11:08 am**

Terry will play in the NBA. The question is how much and for how long? That will depend on his jumper. It still has a long way to go, but you dont find may guys with his size and length who defend, can handle the ball and pass like he can.

Posted: **Mon Dec 20, 2021 11:27 am**

Chicat wrote: Mon Dec 20, 2021 10:50 am The question for him at the next level is who does he defend.

It's an interesting question. He seems to have good foot speed and coordination for his size, but it shows much more offensively than defensively.

I do have some positivity in that area. He gets helped because the whole team is better, but it's noticeable every one of his defensive metrics has improved since last year, in most cases almost doubling.

Posted: **Mon Dec 20, 2021 11:53 am**

Spaceman Spiff wrote: Mon Dec 20, 2021 10:22 am
ChooChooCat wrote: Mon Dec 20, 2021 9:20 am
Spaceman Spiff wrote: Mon Dec 20, 2021 8:54 am

I think Tubelis has a legit shot. He suffers, oddly, for being too complete as a player, IMO. Nothing stands out because everything is good. I somewhat disagree with Choo on returning (although I have zero inside knowledge) in that I don't see what one more college year does for his stock.

His perimeter shot isn't complete that's for sure.
Here's where I need Yo to ride in with his Synergy white horse and save things. He's a fountain of stats in this thread.

viewtopic.php?f=8&t=6981&p=516633#p516633

Tubelis has shown the ability to be good shooting at times. He obviously needs consistency and would help himself by being a knockdown guy. That said, I tend to view shooting as one of those skills the NBA will take a chance on. It's why Stanley and AG went lottery and RHJ went in the first. If I had to list skills the NBA thinks they can develop, shooting consistency is #1.

Offensively, Zu looks REALLY good and well rounded in the stats (matching the eye test).

Agreed with others on here... the question is how well he can project to defend at the next level. I posted at length about guys with his physical profile and its a short list of successful players. Its going to be all about effort here and I like what I've seen out of Zu's motor on D as the year has progressed.

Posted: **Mon Dec 20, 2021 11:59 am**

For the sake of comparison, here's Sabonis in his soph / draft year:

Zu isn't quite the scorer that Sabonis was in his soph season at Gonzaga, but he's already showing the passing that made Sabonis an All Star in his fourth year in the league.

Posted: **Mon Dec 20, 2021 12:14 pm**

YoDeFoe wrote: Mon Dec 20, 2021 11:59 am For the sake of comparison, here's Sabonis in his soph / draft year:

Zu isn't quite the scorer that Sabonis was in his soph season at Gonzaga, but he's already showing the passing that made Sabonis an All Star in his fourth year in the league.

I always flog the Sabonis comparison not just because they're lefty Euros, but how similar their strengths and weaknesses are.

Sabonis didn't really shoot 3's in college and was never a shotblocker, like Tubelis. Sabonis was better on the glass, albeit with way less competition in Wiltjer and Karnowski than Tubelis has.

Offensively, they're very comparable, IMO. Efficient and multi-skilled, just not distance shooters (yet for Tubelis). That's part of my optimism for Tubelis on the next level. Multiskilled bigs tend to flower in the open spaces of the NBA. College is more cramped and Tubelis's game is made for open spaces where his multitude of skills shine.

He now needs to be like Sabonis and figure out how to be a plus defender without blocking shots.

Posted: **Mon Dec 20, 2021 1:46 pm**

Let's just love them as they are and hope they all stay another 2 years.

Posted: **Mon Dec 20, 2021 1:52 pm**

TheCat wrote: Mon Dec 20, 2021 1:46 pm Let's just love them as they are and hope they all stay another 2 years.

If all 5 go to the NBA after this season that probably means we just won the National Championship.

So that's what I'm hoping for

Posted: **Mon Dec 20, 2021 2:37 pm**

I’m hoping we only lose Benn early. Even then I’m hoping to get another year out of him (pretty sure that ain’t happening though).

Posted: **Tue Dec 21, 2021 9:41 am**

Posted: **Tue Dec 21, 2021 10:15 am**

IndianaZonaFan wrote: Mon Dec 20, 2021 2:37 pm I’m hoping we only lose Benn early. Even then I’m hoping to get another year out of him (pretty sure that ain’t happening though).

Keep in mind, this is based in my own thoughts, not inside info, but I'd think Benn, Koloko and Tubelis should all go. Benn is a no brainer. Koloko got his name out and will be drafted on length, rim protection and potential. Tubelis won't improve his stock with another year.

Again, this is not based in actual knowledge with any of them, but just that I think it would be smart for all 3 to leave after this year for various reasons.

Posted: **Tue Dec 21, 2021 10:52 am**

dmjcat wrote: Tue Dec 21, 2021 9:41 am

Could end up being a '22 recruit. Keep a strong eye on this one.

Posted: **Tue Dec 21, 2021 12:52 pm**

ChooChooCat wrote: Tue Dec 21, 2021 10:52 am
dmjcat wrote: Tue Dec 21, 2021 9:41 am

Could end up being a '22 recruit. Keep a strong eye on this one.

Looks legit in his highlight videos. Aggressive defender with handles and a shot, sign me up.

Posted: **Tue Dec 21, 2021 1:30 pm**

ChooChooCat wrote: Tue Dec 21, 2021 10:52 am
dmjcat wrote: Tue Dec 21, 2021 9:41 am

Could end up being a '22 recruit. Keep a strong eye on this one.

would be such a great pickup. If, as expected, we lose just Mathurin and Kier from the 1-3 spots next year, adding Proctor plus a grad transfer keeps us highly competitive on a national scale in the backcourt. Seal the deal Tommy!

Posted: **Tue Dec 21, 2021 1:30 pm**

gronk4heisman wrote: Tue Dec 21, 2021 12:52 pm
ChooChooCat wrote: Tue Dec 21, 2021 10:52 am
dmjcat wrote: Tue Dec 21, 2021 9:41 am

Could end up being a '22 recruit. Keep a strong eye on this one.
Looks legit in his highlight videos. Aggressive defender with handles and a shot, sign me up.

He reminds me of Trier. Same basic size and a good but not elite athlete. Same sort of almost set shot and stepback game.

Defense, your guess is as good as mine from HL vids. He doesn't have freaky physical qualities like a RHJ or Josh Green, so it's about motor and IQ, which are hard to gauge on highlight videos.

Posted: **Tue Dec 21, 2021 1:56 pm**

Spaceman Spiff wrote: Tue Dec 21, 2021 10:15 am
IndianaZonaFan wrote: Mon Dec 20, 2021 2:37 pm I’m hoping we only lose Benn early. Even then I’m hoping to get another year out of him (pretty sure that ain’t happening though).
Keep in mind, this is based in my own thoughts, not inside info, but I'd think Benn, Koloko and Tubelis should all go. Benn is a no brainer. Koloko got his name out and will be drafted on length, rim protection and potential. Tubelis won't improve his stock with another year.

Again, this is not based in actual knowledge with any of them, but just that I think it would be smart for all 3 to leave after this year for various reasons.

Not the best outcome for Arizona, but I fully agree here.

Posted: **Tue Dec 21, 2021 2:05 pm**

Spaceman Spiff wrote: Tue Dec 21, 2021 1:30 pm He reminds me of Trier. Same basic size and a good but not elite athlete. Same sort of almost set shot and stepback game.

Defense, your guess is as good as mine from HL vids. He doesn't have freaky physical qualities like a RHJ or Josh Green, so it's about motor and IQ, which are hard to gauge on highlight videos.

At this point, agreeing with Spiff is just a hobby of mine

But I like the Trier comparison in terms of body and control - has that same kind of feathery footwork and lightness while still seeking contact and rebounding well. Shot looks very similar as well.

Posted: **Tue Dec 21, 2021 2:09 pm**

Them all leaving might be true.

But euros think differently than Americans, so who knows.

And if Koloko stays and generally develops as much his Junior year as he seems to be during his Sophomore year, he gets picked 15 spots higher in the first round.

And that’s the analysis considering we don’t know what happens the rest of the year (like win a natty and top six scorers immediately leave; lost a close final four game and the team leaders encourage the team to come back next year and win it all).

Posted: **Tue Dec 21, 2021 2:17 pm**

Spaceman Spiff wrote: Tue Dec 21, 2021 10:15 am
IndianaZonaFan wrote: Mon Dec 20, 2021 2:37 pm I’m hoping we only lose Benn early. Even then I’m hoping to get another year out of him (pretty sure that ain’t happening though).
Keep in mind, this is based in my own thoughts, not inside info, but I'd think Benn, Koloko and Tubelis should all go. Benn is a no brainer. Koloko got his name out and will be drafted on length, rim protection and potential. Tubelis won't improve his stock with another year.

Again, this is not based in actual knowledge with any of them, but just that I think it would be smart for all 3 to leave after this year for various reasons.

You don't think Koloko has the potential to work his way up from borderline first rounder to a lottery pick with another off season? And you dont think Tubelis can work his way up from a late 2nd rounder to two way G League player if he can work on his outside shot? I think this offseason is a big test to see if we have changed from the get out of here as quickly as possible atmosphere under Miller.

Posted: **Tue Dec 21, 2021 2:27 pm**

YoDeFoe wrote: Tue Dec 21, 2021 2:05 pm
Spaceman Spiff wrote: Tue Dec 21, 2021 1:30 pm He reminds me of Trier. Same basic size and a good but not elite athlete. Same sort of almost set shot and stepback game.

Defense, your guess is as good as mine from HL vids. He doesn't have freaky physical qualities like a RHJ or Josh Green, so it's about motor and IQ, which are hard to gauge on highlight videos.
At this point, agreeing with Spiff is just a hobby of mine

But I like the Trier comparison in terms of body and control - has that same kind of feathery footwork and lightness while still seeking contact and rebounding well. Shot looks very similar as well.

Yeah, he doesn't have elite athleticism where he explodes past and over people. He gets his through body control, angles and making shots. In the videos I saw, his feet are almost always organized. He stops and pivots on drives easily instead of just going full bore at the rim.

He's 6'4 too, which is that sort of combo size Trier had. I'm flattered you agree, and I see it as a pretty flattering comparison. Trier had a big time work ethic, so that's a part of the equation highlight videos don't show either.

Posted: **Tue Dec 21, 2021 2:43 pm**

gronk4heisman wrote: Tue Dec 21, 2021 2:17 pm
Spaceman Spiff wrote: Tue Dec 21, 2021 10:15 am
IndianaZonaFan wrote: Mon Dec 20, 2021 2:37 pm I’m hoping we only lose Benn early. Even then I’m hoping to get another year out of him (pretty sure that ain’t happening though).
Keep in mind, this is based in my own thoughts, not inside info, but I'd think Benn, Koloko and Tubelis should all go. Benn is a no brainer. Koloko got his name out and will be drafted on length, rim protection and potential. Tubelis won't improve his stock with another year.

Again, this is not based in actual knowledge with any of them, but just that I think it would be smart for all 3 to leave after this year for various reasons.
You don't think Koloko has the potential to work his way up from borderline first rounder to a lottery pick with another off season? And you dont think Tubelis can work his way up from a late 2nd rounder to two way G League player if he can work on his outside shot? I think this offseason is a big test to see if we have changed from the get out of here as quickly as possible atmosphere under Miller.

Word

Posted: **Tue Dec 21, 2021 2:52 pm**

gronk4heisman wrote: Tue Dec 21, 2021 2:17 pm
Spaceman Spiff wrote: Tue Dec 21, 2021 10:15 am
IndianaZonaFan wrote: Mon Dec 20, 2021 2:37 pm I’m hoping we only lose Benn early. Even then I’m hoping to get another year out of him (pretty sure that ain’t happening though).
Keep in mind, this is based in my own thoughts, not inside info, but I'd think Benn, Koloko and Tubelis should all go. Benn is a no brainer. Koloko got his name out and will be drafted on length, rim protection and potential. Tubelis won't improve his stock with another year.

Again, this is not based in actual knowledge with any of them, but just that I think it would be smart for all 3 to leave after this year for various reasons.
You don't think Koloko has the potential to work his way up from borderline first rounder to a lottery pick with another off season? And you dont think Tubelis can work his way up from a late 2nd rounder to two way G League player if he can work on his outside shot? I think this offseason is a big test to see if we have changed from the get out of here as quickly as possible atmosphere under Miller.

On Koloko, I think he made a big jump this year. Bigs that go lottery generally do so with skill sets Koloko is unlikely to have. Evan Mobley, Jarrett Allen, it's either being a long leaper or Mobley with a varied offensive game.

Koloko is a pure rim protector and rim runner. Those skills will get you drafted, but they're not highly (lottery) prized in the NBA. Rudy Gobert is the best rim protector/rim runner on earth, a multiple time DPOY and he can't stay on the court in some playoff series.

It isn't so much I don't think Koloko can or will improve, it's that his role is sort of capped at the next level. One of the reasons he's looked so good on D is intentionally scheming to keep him out of space, and that limits you at the next level. I think he could get better, but would almost need to become a different type of player to make the lottery conversation.

Tubelis I see in a different way. He's the type of player who has a somewhat low ceiling in the NBA in that he does everything well but lacks one unique quality making him special (i.e., length with Koloko). Another season would just emphasize he does everything well, but won't produce a freak quality.

So no, for different reasons, I think both of them have stock about where it's destined to be at this point. Like Nick Johnson, he left because absent becoming Salim from 3 or growing 3 inches, his stock was what it was. From the draft perspective, another year won't meaningfully expand who they are or what they can do.

Sure, they'll become better at what they are, but the NBA doesn't draft expecting a finished product. They draft expecting a course of development, and it's type of player and potential that gets you picked where you are.

On a culture of getting out, I'm an Arizona fan, but I'd always tell a kid to go when it's the smart decision. It's their future, their family and their livelihood, not mine. I'm realistic like that. Some fans want players to return to see their school excel, but if Koloko plays himself from a first round guaranteed deal into a UDFA, those fans won't compensate his lost income. Koloko's a person and I want to see him make the right decision for him not Arizona.

I always respected Miller for advising kids to leave when it was in their interest. Too many coaches do the opposite and use players, then cast them aside and ignore if their dreams are crushed in the process.

Posted: **Tue Dec 21, 2021 3:08 pm**

Zu needs to look at Michael Wright (RIP). Very strong inside game, but not much of an outside one. Good athletes, and MW was a solid 16/8 guy.

MW wanted to work on his outside game since he was too short to be in the NBA close to the basket, but Lute said no, so MW left. Drafted in the 2nd round by the Knicks, and never played an NBA minute.

So yes, it would behoove Zu to stay another year just to work on his 3 point shot, and free throws for that matter.

Posted: **Tue Dec 21, 2021 3:18 pm**

gronk4heisman wrote: Tue Dec 21, 2021 2:17 pm
Spaceman Spiff wrote: Tue Dec 21, 2021 10:15 am
IndianaZonaFan wrote: Mon Dec 20, 2021 2:37 pm I’m hoping we only lose Benn early. Even then I’m hoping to get another year out of him (pretty sure that ain’t happening though).
Keep in mind, this is based in my own thoughts, not inside info, but I'd think Benn, Koloko and Tubelis should all go. Benn is a no brainer. Koloko got his name out and will be drafted on length, rim protection and potential. Tubelis won't improve his stock with another year.

Again, this is not based in actual knowledge with any of them, but just that I think it would be smart for all 3 to leave after this year for various reasons.
You don't think Koloko has the potential to work his way up from borderline first rounder to a lottery pick with another off season? And you dont think Tubelis can work his way up from a late 2nd rounder to two way G League player if he can work on his outside shot? I think this offseason is a big test to see if we have changed from the get out of here as quickly as possible atmosphere under Miller.

Ditto.

The only AZ player at this point that should jump to the League is Mathurin. Koloko badly needs to gain additional weight/strength and Tubelis needs to further work on his game and defense. In Kolokos case he recently gave up a double/double to a guy (Cockburn) who isn't even on most of the draft boards (NBADraft has him as the next to last pick in the 2nd round). If he can't handle a late 2nd round pick, he's got no business in the league right now.

Posted: **Tue Dec 21, 2021 4:22 pm**

Merkin wrote: Tue Dec 21, 2021 3:08 pm Zu needs to look at Michael Wright (RIP). Very strong inside game, but not much of an outside one. Good athletes, and MW was a solid 16/8 guy.

MW wanted to work on his outside game since he was too short to be in the NBA close to the basket, but Lute said no, so MW left. Drafted in the 2nd round by the Knicks, and never played an NBA minute.

So yes, it would behoove Zu to stay another year just to work on his 3 point shot, and free throws for that matter.

Wright was nowhere near as skilled as Zu, and was 3-4" shorter. I loved the guy; he was a beast in terms of strength, and was great scoring and boarding around the basket, but he was never going to play in the NBA. He had no verticality, could not dribble or pass, and (aside from the free throw line) could not shoot outside of 5-8'.

I think Tubelis sticks in the NBA regardless of when he leaves... if he is not a guaranteed first rounder at the end of the season, then he should come back.

Posted: **Tue Dec 21, 2021 4:33 pm**

Screw all of this “what’s best for the player” bullshit.

Is anyone compensating me for the years of pain and agony for not getting to the FF or claiming our second ‘ship? No, they aren’t. Not to mention the busted up couch pillows, toe injuries from kicking the table, probable ulcers, and fights with the Mrs. over the years watching AZ b-ball.

This program, coaches and players owe me for 40+ years of all in emotional fandom. If Koloko, Tubelis and Mathurin need to stay an extra year in order to give me what I deserve…I’m willing to make the sacrifice.

Posted: **Tue Dec 21, 2021 4:47 pm**

Harvey Specter wrote: Tue Dec 21, 2021 4:22 pm
Merkin wrote: Tue Dec 21, 2021 3:08 pm Zu needs to look at Michael Wright (RIP). Very strong inside game, but not much of an outside one. Good athletes, and MW was a solid 16/8 guy.

MW wanted to work on his outside game since he was too short to be in the NBA close to the basket, but Lute said no, so MW left. Drafted in the 2nd round by the Knicks, and never played an NBA minute.

So yes, it would behoove Zu to stay another year just to work on his 3 point shot, and free throws for that matter.
Wright was nowhere near as skilled as Zu, and was 3-4" shorter. I loved the guy; he was a beast in terms of strength, and was great scoring and boarding around the basket, but he was never going to play in the NBA. He had no verticality, could not dribble or pass, and (aside from the free throw line) could not shoot outside of 5-8'.

I think Tubelis sticks in the NBA regardless of when he leaves... if he is not a guaranteed first rounder at the end of the season, then he should come back.

Agree 100% except for the first rounder part. I think his stock is as high as it will reasonably be. He'll find someone willing to see if he can improve his J, but the reasons why he might not be a 1st will remain as a junior.

Posted: **Tue Dec 21, 2021 5:12 pm**

Spaceman Spiff wrote: Tue Dec 21, 2021 2:27 pm
YoDeFoe wrote: Tue Dec 21, 2021 2:05 pm
Spaceman Spiff wrote: Tue Dec 21, 2021 1:30 pm He reminds me of Trier. Same basic size and a good but not elite athlete. Same sort of almost set shot and stepback game.

Defense, your guess is as good as mine from HL vids. He doesn't have freaky physical qualities like a RHJ or Josh Green, so it's about motor and IQ, which are hard to gauge on highlight videos.
At this point, agreeing with Spiff is just a hobby of mine

But I like the Trier comparison in terms of body and control - has that same kind of feathery footwork and lightness while still seeking contact and rebounding well. Shot looks very similar as well.
Yeah, he doesn't have elite athleticism where he explodes past and over people. He gets his through body control, angles and making shots. In the videos I saw, his feet are almost always organized. He stops and pivots on drives easily instead of just going full bore at the rim.

He's 6'4 too, which is that sort of combo size Trier had. I'm flattered you agree, and I see it as a pretty flattering comparison. Trier had a big time work ethic, so that's a part of the equation highlight videos don't show either.

Now just imagine an Alonzo Trier that can actually pass the ball and well. *Mind blown*

Posted: **Tue Dec 21, 2021 5:24 pm**

No, I don't think Koloko can become a lottery pick after next season as a heading-into-the-league 23 year old with a ceiling as a back-up center / low-end starter. For his sake, he should go after this season as a late first rounder who can play 25min/g for many seasons based on his defense and finishing at the rim. He's not going to get younger, he's not going to all of a sudden develop Jaren Jackson Jr. offensive skills. He's grown to be elite in the areas that he's good at - that's about as much as we can expect. And re: Cockburn, Koloko very much did contain him.

Zu... it's tough. Sam Vecenie has him ranked fourth most draft-worthy among Arizona players in his recent comments, behind Terry. And it's no surprise why - physically he's in a difficult spot to project as being successful in the league with not enough length or leaping ability to be a rim protector at C, and while he's not at all slow he likely lacks the foot speed to keep up with forwards in the NBA. He's done a ton so far this season to improve his draft stock by being a more active defender and passer while backing up his rep as a productive and efficient scorer - if he keeps up everything he's showing, I could see a late first pick for him in this draft.

Posted: **Tue Dec 21, 2021 7:05 pm**

YoDeFoe wrote: Tue Dec 21, 2021 5:24 pm No, I don't think Koloko can become a lottery pick after next season as a heading-into-the-league 23 year old with a ceiling as a back-up center / low-end starter. For his sake, he should go after this season as a late first rounder who can play 25min/g for many seasons based on his defense and finishing at the rim. He's not going to get younger, he's not going to all of a sudden develop Jaren Jackson Jr. offensive skills. He's grown to be elite in the areas that he's good at - that's about as much as we can expect. And re: Cockburn, Koloko very much did contain him.

Zu... it's tough. Sam Vecenie has him ranked fourth most draft-worthy among Arizona players in his recent comments, behind Terry. And it's no surprise why - physically he's in a difficult spot to project as being successful in the league with not enough length or leaping ability to be a rim protector at C, and while he's not at all slow he likely lacks the foot speed to keep up with forwards in the NBA. He's done a ton so far this season to improve his draft stock by being a more active defender and passer while backing up his rep as a productive and efficient scorer - if he keeps up everything he's showing, I could see a late first pick for him in this draft.

I agree very much. I don't see what changes for either with one more year. Koloko's role projection isn't changing unless he comes back shooting 3's and Tubelis isn't changing his physical profile.

The more time people spend in college, the less developmental opportunity the NBA sees. I just don't see the NBA's sticking point with either one changing with another year.

Posted: **Tue Dec 21, 2021 11:04 pm**

I don't know. Sounds like the same old story then. Don't finish your college career so you can get a jump start on a disappointing NBA career that doesn't pan out so you can spend the rest of your life wishing you had taken another year in college when you were on top of the world.

Like Nick Johnson would have ruined all that NBA potential with a senior year.

Posted: **Wed Dec 22, 2021 7:42 am**

Posted: **Wed Dec 22, 2021 9:59 am**

Longhorned wrote: Tue Dec 21, 2021 11:04 pm I don't know. Sounds like the same old story then. Don't finish your college career so you can get a jump start on a disappointing NBA career that doesn't pan out so you can spend the rest of your life wishing you had taken another year in college when you were on top of the world.

Like Nick Johnson would have ruined all that NBA potential with a senior year.

Eh, I fully disagree. Admittedly, it was almost 20 years ago, but I spent plenty of time around college players.

Some of them enjoyed college. I didn't know a single person whose basketball dreams weren't entirely the NBA. The NBA is the dream. Kids don't grow up dreaming of Arizona, fans want to believe they do.

Nick Johnson extended his pro playing career by one year leaving as a junior and got $508,000 for it. If he'd returned to Arizona, his pro limits would have been identical and he'd just end a pro career half a million poorer and deferring his dream by a year.

I grew up with a basketball dream. I'd take Nick Johnson's one year in Houston over 4 years at Arizona any day. People on here get mad that Arizona might be a stepping stone, but anyone who's serious about basketball, college is a stepping stone.

Posted: **Wed Dec 22, 2021 10:14 am**

Spaceman Spiff wrote: Wed Dec 22, 2021 9:59 am
Longhorned wrote: Tue Dec 21, 2021 11:04 pm I don't know. Sounds like the same old story then. Don't finish your college career so you can get a jump start on a disappointing NBA career that doesn't pan out so you can spend the rest of your life wishing you had taken another year in college when you were on top of the world.

Like Nick Johnson would have ruined all that NBA potential with a senior year.
Eh, I fully disagree. Admittedly, it was almost 20 years ago, but I spent plenty of time around college players.

Some of them enjoyed college. I didn't know a single person whose basketball dreams weren't entirely the NBA. The NBA is the dream. Kids don't grow up dreaming of Arizona, fans want to believe they do.

Nick Johnson extended his pro playing career by one year leaving as a junior and got $508,000 for it. If he'd returned to Arizona, his pro limits would have been identical and he'd just end a pro career half a million poorer and deferring his dream by a year.

I grew up with a basketball dream. I'd take Nick Johnson's one year in Houston over 4 years at Arizona any day. People on here get mad that Arizona might be a stepping stone, but anyone who's serious about basketball, college is a stepping stone.

Posted: **Wed Dec 22, 2021 10:21 am**

Spaceman Spiff wrote: Wed Dec 22, 2021 9:59 am
Longhorned wrote: Tue Dec 21, 2021 11:04 pm I don't know. Sounds like the same old story then. Don't finish your college career so you can get a jump start on a disappointing NBA career that doesn't pan out so you can spend the rest of your life wishing you had taken another year in college when you were on top of the world.

Like Nick Johnson would have ruined all that NBA potential with a senior year.
Eh, I fully disagree. Admittedly, it was almost 20 years ago, but I spent plenty of time around college players.

Some of them enjoyed college. I didn't know a single person whose basketball dreams weren't entirely the NBA. The NBA is the dream. Kids don't grow up dreaming of Arizona, fans want to believe they do.

Nick Johnson extended his pro playing career by one year leaving as a junior and got $508,000 for it. If he'd returned to Arizona, his pro limits would have been identical and he'd just end a pro career half a million poorer and deferring his dream by a year.

I grew up with a basketball dream. I'd take Nick Johnson's one year in Houston over 4 years at Arizona any day. People on here get mad that Arizona might be a stepping stone, but anyone who's serious about basketball, college is a stepping stone.

Your story assumes Nick wouldn't have got that same one year at Houston the following year. I am almost certain he would have, so no money was gained by leaving early. Lute used to say its not about getting to the league its about staying in the league.

Posted: **Wed Dec 22, 2021 10:29 am**

EastCoastCat wrote: Wed Dec 22, 2021 10:14 am
Spaceman Spiff wrote: Wed Dec 22, 2021 9:59 am
Longhorned wrote: Tue Dec 21, 2021 11:04 pm I don't know. Sounds like the same old story then. Don't finish your college career so you can get a jump start on a disappointing NBA career that doesn't pan out so you can spend the rest of your life wishing you had taken another year in college when you were on top of the world.

Like Nick Johnson would have ruined all that NBA potential with a senior year.
Eh, I fully disagree. Admittedly, it was almost 20 years ago, but I spent plenty of time around college players.

Some of them enjoyed college. I didn't know a single person whose basketball dreams weren't entirely the NBA. The NBA is the dream. Kids don't grow up dreaming of Arizona, fans want to believe they do.

Nick Johnson extended his pro playing career by one year leaving as a junior and got $508,000 for it. If he'd returned to Arizona, his pro limits would have been identical and he'd just end a pro career half a million poorer and deferring his dream by a year.

I grew up with a basketball dream. I'd take Nick Johnson's one year in Houston over 4 years at Arizona any day. People on here get mad that Arizona might be a stepping stone, but anyone who's serious about basketball, college is a stepping stone.

It's only propaganda if you camouflage it. I'm pretty direct that my dream was to get paid by the NBA.

Now I just need Adam Silver to see this post and throw me some $ for it and my dream becomes reality.

Posted: **Wed Dec 22, 2021 10:49 am**

Spaceman Spiff wrote: Wed Dec 22, 2021 9:59 am
Longhorned wrote: Tue Dec 21, 2021 11:04 pm I don't know. Sounds like the same old story then. Don't finish your college career so you can get a jump start on a disappointing NBA career that doesn't pan out so you can spend the rest of your life wishing you had taken another year in college when you were on top of the world.

Like Nick Johnson would have ruined all that NBA potential with a senior year.
Eh, I fully disagree. Admittedly, it was almost 20 years ago, but I spent plenty of time around college players.

Some of them enjoyed college. I didn't know a single person whose basketball dreams weren't entirely the NBA. The NBA is the dream. Kids don't grow up dreaming of Arizona, fans want to believe they do.

Nick Johnson extended his pro playing career by one year leaving as a junior and got $508,000 for it. If he'd returned to Arizona, his pro limits would have been identical and he'd just end a pro career half a million poorer and deferring his dream by a year.

I grew up with a basketball dream. I'd take Nick Johnson's one year in Houston over 4 years at Arizona any day. People on here get mad that Arizona might be a stepping stone, but anyone who's serious about basketball, college is a stepping stone.
[

This is where I have to disagree with you. On most stuff you're spot on, but on this I have a completely different take. Nick Johnson not returning for his senior year is one of the great mysteries in Arizona basketball. NJ wasn't just a rotational player, he was a 5 star and the reigning Pac 12 POY going into his senior year. He was also an ace defender. You can't tell me that his presence on the court could have turned the tides against a team like Wisconsin. In fact, he may have been the difference maker. And once you get to the Final Four, all bets are off. You have no idea which player is going to have a breakout game and sprint up the draft boards. Look at Dante DiVicenzo. You could have put him on a milk carton prior to the FF, but after his performance he was a first round lock simply based on two games (really the NC game, but don't want split hairs).

NJ could have had a similar performance, moved into the first round and got drafted by team that actually needed him. He might have been a fixture in the league, if anything as a journeyman. In my opinion if you're not a consensus lock for the first round and have eligibility left, it's always best to come back to school and furiously work on your weaknesses in the offseason. It's always a tragedy when you watch players like Kobi Simmons (one of my favorites) leave two years early and forfeit a potentially super NBA career because he got bad advice and was impatient.

Ok, enough with that. I was perusing the sports blogs and its remarkable how many Zag fans are terrified of meeting us in the tournament. Some say that we run a better version of what Gonzaga does. Some even say that Lloyd is better than Few. Many don't want Lloyd super motivated to prove that he was as pivotal to Gonzaga's success as Few. In any event, this year there are no clear dominant teams that really put fear in the heart of players. My hope for Lloyd is that every bit of bad luck that our previous two coaches had in the tourney turns around for him this year. I think the stage is set for it to be honest.

Posted: **Wed Dec 22, 2021 10:51 am**

Sorry guys for some reason my post got included in Spiff's quote.

Posted: **Wed Dec 22, 2021 10:56 am**

gronk4heisman wrote: Wed Dec 22, 2021 10:21 am
Spaceman Spiff wrote: Wed Dec 22, 2021 9:59 am
Longhorned wrote: Tue Dec 21, 2021 11:04 pm I don't know. Sounds like the same old story then. Don't finish your college career so you can get a jump start on a disappointing NBA career that doesn't pan out so you can spend the rest of your life wishing you had taken another year in college when you were on top of the world.

Like Nick Johnson would have ruined all that NBA potential with a senior year.
Eh, I fully disagree. Admittedly, it was almost 20 years ago, but I spent plenty of time around college players.

Some of them enjoyed college. I didn't know a single person whose basketball dreams weren't entirely the NBA. The NBA is the dream. Kids don't grow up dreaming of Arizona, fans want to believe they do.

Nick Johnson extended his pro playing career by one year leaving as a junior and got $508,000 for it. If he'd returned to Arizona, his pro limits would have been identical and he'd just end a pro career half a million poorer and deferring his dream by a year.

I grew up with a basketball dream. I'd take Nick Johnson's one year in Houston over 4 years at Arizona any day. People on here get mad that Arizona might be a stepping stone, but anyone who's serious about basketball, college is a stepping stone.
Your story assumes Nick wouldn't have got that same one year at Houston the following year. I am almost certain he would have, so no money was gained by leaving early. Lute used to say its not about getting to the league its about staying in the league.

Staying would have curtailed his pro career by a year. He's still making good money overseas and should have a viable pro career for at least a few more years.

So unless staying one more year would have also have prolonged his pro career by a year, he gets one more earning year. I used the $508,000 from year 1 with Houston, and it's reasonable he makes close to that overseas for each year.

As for Lute's words, Nick is a great example of the things with Koloko and Tubelis. Nick didn't stick because he was 4 inches too short for a wing. He was unlikely to grow 4 inches his senior year.

Tubelis isn't long enough to be a pure NBA big and isn't quick enough to be a perimeter guy. Another year won't change that.

Koloko has length, but doesn't have a diverse offensive game or exceptional lateral quickness. So, he's a rim protector and interior finisher. Short of morphing into a new skillset, another year isn't changing that.

The problem with Lute's words is that they only justify returning to college when returning helps a player develop something they need to stick. Nick, Koloko and Tubelis...their limits aren't getting changed by an extra year in college.

Nick, Koloko and Tubelis all are who they are and it's more a question of whether that's enough to make it.

Posted: **Wed Dec 22, 2021 11:25 am**

RawleArenas wrote: Wed Dec 22, 2021 10:51 am Sorry guys for some reason my post got included in Spiff's quote.

It's because your subconscious knows I'm right but your conscious mind won't capitulate.

Joking aside, DiVincenzo was 6'5, 200. Nick measured 6'1.5 at the combine. It wasn't about stock so much as Nick being 3 inches too small.

Posted: **Wed Dec 22, 2021 11:39 am**

Spaceman Spiff wrote: Wed Dec 22, 2021 10:56 am
Nick, Koloko and Tubelis all are who they are and it's more a question of whether that's enough to make it.

When you are who you are the added year of maturity is even more important, as it gives you a leg up over other rookies who are who they are who you are competing with for a roster spot. See Peyton Prichard, TJ McConnell, Terrence Mann, Chris Duarte, Eric Paschall, etc.

Obviously I am no basketball pro, but had some job taken me out of college at 21 I would not have known or been ready for the real world and what it takes to get to the top.

Posted: **Wed Dec 22, 2021 12:06 pm**

gronk4heisman wrote: Wed Dec 22, 2021 11:39 am
Spaceman Spiff wrote: Wed Dec 22, 2021 10:56 am
Nick, Koloko and Tubelis all are who they are and it's more a question of whether that's enough to make it.
When you are who you are the added year of maturity is even more important, as it gives you a leg up over other rookies who are who they are who you are competing with for a roster spot. See Peyton Prichard, TJ McConnell, Terrence Mann, Chris Duarte, Eric Paschall, etc.

Obviously I am no basketball pro, but had some job taken me out of college at 21 I would not have known or been ready for the real world and what it takes to get to the top.

Eh, the NBA will give you that maturity if you need it. The G league isn't a dumping ground, it's developmental. Over the 3 years prior to this, the NBA had 55, 36 and 41 players called up. Two way contracts exist to facilitate that development.

This is a statistical analysis of college experience vs NBA production laid out pretty well by 538. Juniors and seniors perform worse than freshmen and sophomores, even in the early stages of their career.

https://www.google.com/amp/s/fivethirty ... teams/amp/

Posted: **Wed Dec 22, 2021 5:10 pm**

gronk4heisman wrote: Wed Dec 22, 2021 11:39 am
Spaceman Spiff wrote: Wed Dec 22, 2021 10:56 am
Nick, Koloko and Tubelis all are who they are and it's more a question of whether that's enough to make it.
When you are who you are the added year of maturity is even more important, as it gives you a leg up over other rookies who are who they are who you are competing with for a roster spot. See Peyton Prichard, TJ McConnell, Terrence Mann, Chris Duarte, Eric Paschall, etc.

Obviously I am no basketball pro, but had some job taken me out of college at 21 I would not have known or been ready for the real world and what it takes to get to the top.

I am not sure most 22 year olds are ready or know what it takes “to get to the top”, either. And many of the people who I would say have gotten *there* were college dropouts. Jobs, Gates, Dell, Ellison, etc.

Posted: **Wed Dec 22, 2021 7:39 pm**

Spiff, the way covid is hitting the NBA, you might get your shot.

I disagree re Koloko. I think another year here will give him a better shot at sticking.
He can work on a lot of things.
Tu can start is Euro dominance in a couple years, Benn will probably benefit from doing B-ball full time as a pro.

Posted: **Wed Dec 29, 2021 2:24 pm**

https://www.zagsblog.com/2021/12/28/cla ... g-hardest/

Kylan Boswell, the 6-foot-2, 190-pound Class of 2023 point guard from Arizona Compass Prep, says several schools are recruiting him the hardest at this stage of his recruitment.
Boswell, who models his game after Trae Young and Devin Booker, listed Arizona, Oregon, Illinois, Michigan and UNLV as the schools working the hardest. Kentucky coaches John Calipari and Chin Coleman also saw Boswell go for 15 points and four rebounds in Monday’s 78-40 win over Our Saviour Lutheran at Hoophall East in Delaware. He is rated the No. 3 point guard in the Class of 2023, per 247Sports.com.

He broke down his top options in a phone interview Tuesday.
Arizona: “Right now, Arizona [plays a] quick-tempo offense. New coach from Gonzaga [Tommy Lloyd]. I love their coaching staff over there. I’m at AZ Compass right now, so I’m used to the area.”
Illinois: “I’m from Champaign, Illinois. Coach [Brad] Underwood and coach [Geoff] Alexander, I really like their coaching staff, too. They throw the pitch of NIL deals, so big-time stuff right there.”
Michigan: “Coach Juwan Howard, that’s my guy, I talk to him all the time. I really like how when we talk, we don’t really talk about basketball like that. We talk about life and how my parents are doing and stuff like that, so I really like coach Howard.”
Oregon: “Oregon, me and Mookie [Cook], they like that pitch right there. We’ve been playing together for a little while and they like Mookie’s game. And they try to model their scoring off the point guard.”
UNLV: “UNLV, same thing. I really like coach [Kevin] Kruger, coach [Brandon] Chappell been talking to me. I really love their coaching staff.”
Kentucky: “Kentucky hasn’t offered me yet, I’m definitely hoping to get that one. They really like my game. They have heavy interest, and whenever they feel it’s time to offer, it’s time to offer.”

Boswell said he plans to attend some games at Arizona and Illinois in the coming weeks.
“I don’t know the exact dates,” he said.
Arizona Compass Prep is ranked No. 6 nationally by ESPN.com with its lone loss to Richardson (TX), but Boswell said the goal is to win the high school national championship.
“The goal so far is to make sure we go undefetaed for the rest of the season and make sure we win GEICO,” he said.

Posted: **Wed Dec 29, 2021 2:56 pm**

Is Boswell considered a one and done talent?

Posted: **Wed Dec 29, 2021 2:58 pm**

Spaceman Spiff wrote: Wed Dec 22, 2021 12:06 pm
gronk4heisman wrote: Wed Dec 22, 2021 11:39 am
Spaceman Spiff wrote: Wed Dec 22, 2021 10:56 am
Nick, Koloko and Tubelis all are who they are and it's more a question of whether that's enough to make it.
When you are who you are the added year of maturity is even more important, as it gives you a leg up over other rookies who are who they are who you are competing with for a roster spot. See Peyton Prichard, TJ McConnell, Terrence Mann, Chris Duarte, Eric Paschall, etc.

Obviously I am no basketball pro, but had some job taken me out of college at 21 I would not have known or been ready for the real world and what it takes to get to the top.
Eh, the NBA will give you that maturity if you need it. The G league isn't a dumping ground, it's developmental. Over the 3 years prior to this, the NBA had 55, 36 and 41 players called up. Two way contracts exist to facilitate that development.

This is a statistical analysis of college experience vs NBA production laid out pretty well by 538. Juniors and seniors perform worse than freshmen and sophomores, even in the early stages of their career.

https://www.google.com/amp/s/fivethirty ... teams/amp/

I suspect this is almost entirely due to the average talent level of kids getting drafted as freshman vs those as seniors. The players with the highest chances of success, the highest ceilings, everything, are the freshman.

The analysis I would be really interested in is seeing players with similar profiles (especially physically), if there is any correlation between time in college and NBA success. ie. if comparing players like TJ, Pritchard, Nick, at least for guards. There's not going to be a ton of samples unfortunately, but that's really the question we're looking at. For any given player, especially without the typical physical stature/skills, are they better off staying in college?

Posted: **Wed Dec 29, 2021 3:38 pm**

prh wrote: Wed Dec 29, 2021 2:58 pm
Spaceman Spiff wrote: Wed Dec 22, 2021 12:06 pm
gronk4heisman wrote: Wed Dec 22, 2021 11:39 am
Spaceman Spiff wrote: Wed Dec 22, 2021 10:56 am
Nick, Koloko and Tubelis all are who they are and it's more a question of whether that's enough to make it.
When you are who you are the added year of maturity is even more important, as it gives you a leg up over other rookies who are who they are who you are competing with for a roster spot. See Peyton Prichard, TJ McConnell, Terrence Mann, Chris Duarte, Eric Paschall, etc.

Obviously I am no basketball pro, but had some job taken me out of college at 21 I would not have known or been ready for the real world and what it takes to get to the top.
Eh, the NBA will give you that maturity if you need it. The G league isn't a dumping ground, it's developmental. Over the 3 years prior to this, the NBA had 55, 36 and 41 players called up. Two way contracts exist to facilitate that development.

This is a statistical analysis of college experience vs NBA production laid out pretty well by 538. Juniors and seniors perform worse than freshmen and sophomores, even in the early stages of their career.

https://www.google.com/amp/s/fivethirty ... teams/amp/
I suspect this is almost entirely due to the average talent level of kids getting drafted as freshman vs those as seniors. The players with the highest chances of success, the highest ceilings, everything, are the freshman.

The analysis I would be really interested in is seeing players with similar profiles (especially physically), if there is any correlation between time in college and NBA success. ie. if comparing players like TJ, Pritchard, Nick, at least for guards. There's not going to be a ton of samples unfortunately, but that's really the question we're looking at. For any given player, especially without the typical physical stature/skills, are they better off staying in college?

I think it's be hard. For every TJ there's an Aaron Craft. I always thought Salim and JJ Redick were very similar in college, both spent 4 years there and their pro paths could not have been more divergent.

There's always the unanswerable part, did someone stay 4 years because they had intangibles that the league missed evaluating or did they benefit from the extra years?

So I looked, in 2011-12, Duquesne started two guards who were both 6'1, 195. One was named Sean Johnson. The other was TJ McConnell. Both spent 4 years in college. TJ went on to a long NBA career, I can find no evidence Sean Johnson played basketball after college.

On the talent thing, my flip side would be that it shows the NBA is fairly efficient at identifying talent regardless of how many years a kid spends in college. Which circles back to my thing with Koloko and Tubelis...I think the raw materials are there for both and don't see how, if their goal is NBA, additional college time helps that.

Posted: **Wed Dec 29, 2021 3:41 pm**

gronk4heisman wrote: Wed Dec 29, 2021 2:56 pm Is Boswell considered a one and done talent?

According to this Mock Draft, yes. He's the 9th pick

https://nbadraftroom.com/p/2024-nba-mock-draft/

Posted: **Fri Dec 31, 2021 9:58 am**

gronk4heisman wrote: Wed Dec 29, 2021 2:56 pm Is Boswell considered a one and done talent?

I suppose anything is possible, but no, he’s not seen as a one and done.

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